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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 19/17:06 EST Aug 19
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Existing-home Sales for July (annual rate)                              
 Wednesday, August 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                 Median       Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Home Resales     5.45m  5.40m to 5.51m                 --  5.38m  5.41m
     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to rise to a 
5.45 million annual rate in July after slipping further to a 5.38       
million rate in June. Pending home sales rose by 0.9% in June, a        
positive sign for existing home sales. Supply of homes for sale remains 
extremely low, keeping prices elevated.                                 
Weekly Jobless Claims for August 18 week                                
 Thursday, August 23 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Aug18  Aug11  Aug04
 Weekly Claims   215k     215k to 215k                  --   214k   219k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 3,000 to 215,000 in the August 18 employment survey week after a     
decrease of 2,000 to 212,000 in the previous week. Claims were at a     
level of 208,000 in the July 14 employment survey week, the lowest point
in decades. The four-week moving average would fall by 500 in the coming
week as the 217,000 level in the July 21 week rolls out of the          
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no      
revisions.                                                              
New Home Sales for July (annual rate)                                   
 Thursday, August 23 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 New Homes       645k     630k to 650k                  --   631k   666k
     Comments: New home sales are expected to rise to a 645,000 annual  
rate in July following a sharp June drop. Unadjusted sales were up 1.8% 
from a year earlier in June. Meanwhile, home supply was up 1.7%         
month/month and 10.3% year/year, so the supply is rising and should be  
more than adequate to meet demand.                                      
Durable Goods Orders for July (percent change)                          
 Friday, August 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 New Orders     -1.1%    -2.0% to +1.5%                 --  +0.8%  -0.3%
 Ex-Transport   +0.3%    +0.0% to +0.7%                 --  +0.2%  +0.3%
     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to decline by 1.1% in  
July after a 0.8% gain in June. Boeing reported only 30 orders in July, 
down very sharply from 233 orders in June, so aircraft orders are likely
to retrace in the July report after a June increase. However, not all of
the June surge in Boeing orders was reflected in the durables report    
that month, so there is an upside risk to the July data. New orders     
excluding transportation are expected to rise by 0.3% after a 0.2% gain 
in the previous month.                                                  
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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