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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 1 week
Thursday, September 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep01 Aug25 Aug18
Weekly Claims 210k 208k to 213k -- 213k 210k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 3,000 to 210,000 in the September 1 week after a modest increase of
3,000 to 213,000 in the previous week. Any comparison to a year ago is
tainted by the hurricanes that hit in early-September 2017. The
four-week moving average would fall by 1000 in the coming week as the
214,000 level in the August 4 week rolls out of the calculation,
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)
Thursday, September 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 2Q18r 2Q18p 1Q18
Productivity +3.0% +2.9% to +3.1% -- +2.9% -0.3%
Unit Labor Costs -0.9% -1.1% to -0.8% -- -0.9% +2.3%
Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up very
slightly to a 3.0% pace from the 2.9% gain in the preliminary estimate
due to a small upward adjustment in output. Unit labor costs are
expected to be revised unrevised from the 0.9% drop in the preliminary
estimate.
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for August
Thursday, September 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug18 Jul18 Jun18
ISM NMI 57.0 56.0 to 58.0 -- 55.7 59.1
Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rise to a
reading of 57.0 in August from 55.7 in July. The Philadelphia
nonmanufacturing index fell to 41.7, while the flash Markit Services
index dipped to 55.2.
Factory Orders for July (percent change)
Thursday, September 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul18 Jun18 May18
New Orders -0.6% -0.7% to -0.4% -- +0.7% +0.4%
Ex Transport -- -- to -- -- +0.4% +0.8%
Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.6% in July.
Durable goods orders declined by 1.7% in the month on a sharp drop in
transportation orders, while nondurables orders are expected to decline
on softer energy prices. Durable orders excluding transportation were up
0.2%, so total factory orders excluding transportation are expected to
rise slightly.
Nonfarm Payrolls for August (change in thousands)
Friday, September 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug18 Jul18 Jun18
Payrolls +195k +166k to +230k -- +157k +248k
Private Job +190k +163k to +215k -- +170k +234k
Jobless Rate 3.8% 3.8% to 3.9% -- 3.9% 4.0%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% +0.2% to +0.3% -- +0.3% +0.1%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.5 to 34.5 -- 34.5 34.6
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 195,000 in
August after a weaker-than-expected 157,000 rise in July. The
unemployment rate is expected to fell further to 3.8% after dipping to
3.9% in July. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3%
gain, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5
hours
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.