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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Sep 28/17:06 EST Sep 28
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Construction Spending for August (percent change)                        
 Monday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Construction   +0.5%    +0.0% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  -0.8%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.5% in 
August after a 0.1% July gain. Housing starts rose sharply in the month, 
suggesting that private residential building should rise further after a 
July gain that was led by entirely by remodeling. 
ISM Manufacturing Index for September                                       
 Monday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Mfg ISM         60.0     58.0 to 60.5                  --   61.3   58.1
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a 
reading of 60.0 in September after jumping to 61.3 in August. Regional 
conditions data have been mixed in the direction of monthly movement, 
but generally point to continued strong growth. Additionally, the flash 
Markit manufacturing index rose to 55.6 from 54.7. 
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for September (mln units, saar)                  
 Tuesday, October 2                                      Actual:
               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Sales Ex GM                                            --  10.0m   9.9m
     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales is expected to 
rise modestly in September after holding roughly steady in recent 
months. Seasonal adjustment factors will be an addition to September 
unadjusted sales after subtracting from them in August. 
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for September 
 Wednesday, October 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 ISM NMI         58.1     57.4 to 59.5                  --   58.5   55.7
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall very 
slightly to a reading of 58.1 in September after jumping to 58.5 in 
August. The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell to 37.4, while the 
flash Markit Services index fell to 52.9 from 53.4 in August. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 29 week                                
 Thursday, October 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Sep29  Sep22  Sep15
 Weekly Claims   210k     210k to 210k                  --   214k   202k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 
by 4,000 to a 210,000 level in the September 29 week after an increase 
of 12,000 to 214,000 in the previous week as the impact of Hurricane 
Florence was partially observed. The four-week moving average would rise 
by 1,250 in the coming week as the 205,000 level in the September 1 week 
rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and 
there are no revisions. 
Factory Orders for August (percent change)                             
 Thursday, October 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18  
 New Orders     +2.1%    +0.8% to +2.5%                 --  -0.8%  +0.6%
 Ex Transport      --       -- to --                    --  +0.2%  +0.4%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 2.1% in August. 
Durable goods orders rose by 4.5% in the month on a jump in 
transportation orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise 
modestly on an increase in energy prices. Durable orders excluding 
transportation were up only 0.1%, so total factory orders excluding 
transportation are expected to post another small gain. 
Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18 
 Payrolls       +193k    +150k to +220k                --  +201k  +147k 
 Private Jobs   +188k    +145k to +195k                --  +204k  +153k
 Jobless Rate    3.8%     3.8% to 3.9%                 --   3.9%   3.9%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.4%  +0.3%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 193,000 in 
September after a stronger-than-expected 201,000 rise in August. The 
effects of Hurricane Florence may be limited because it occurred very 
late in the survey week. The unemployment rate is expected to slip to 
3.8% after staying at 3.9% in August after rounding. Hourly earnings are 
forecast to rise by 0.3% after solid gains in the previous two months, 
but a 0.5% gain in September 2017 due the hurricanes that month should 
reduce the year/year rate this year. The average workweek is expected to 
hold steady for another month at 34.5 hours. 
Trade in Goods and Services for August (deficit, billion $)           
 Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                Aug18   Jul18   Jun18
 Trade Gap    -$52.2b  -$53.7b to -$47.2b             -- -$50.1b -$45.7b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $52.2 
billion in August from $50.1 billion in July. The advance estimate of 
the Census goods trade gap widened further to $75.8 billion, as exports 
fell and imports rose. 
Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions)                   
 Friday, October 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Aug18   Jul18   Jun18
 Cons Cred   +$14.2b +$10.0b to +$15.5b               -- +$16.6b  +$8.5b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $14.2 billion in 
August after a solid $16.6 billion gain in July. Retail sales were up 
only 0.1% in August overall and 0.3% excluding a 0.8% decline in motor 
vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth slowed.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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