US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for September (mln units, saar)                  

 Tuesday, October 2                                      Actual:

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Sales Ex GM                                            --  10.0m   9.9m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales is expected to 

rise modestly in September after holding roughly steady in recent 

months. Seasonal adjustment factors will be an addition to September 

unadjusted sales after subtracting from them in August. 

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for September 

 Wednesday, October 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 ISM NMI         58.0     57.4 to 59.5                  --   58.5   55.7

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall very 

slightly to a reading of 58.0 in September after jumping to 58.5 in 

August. The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell to 37.4, while the 

flash Markit Services index fell to 52.9 from 53.4 in August. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 29 week                                

 Thursday, October 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Sep29  Sep22  Sep15

 Weekly Claims   215k     210k to 220k                  --   214k   202k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 1,000 to a 215,000 level in the September 29 week after an increase 

of 12,000 to 214,000 in the previous week as the impact of Hurricane 

Florence was partially observed. The four-week moving average would rise 

by 2,500 in the coming week as the 205,000 level in the September 1 week 

rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and 

there are no revisions. 

Factory Orders for August (percent change)                             

 Thursday, October 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18  

 New Orders     +2.2%    +1.0% to +2.5%                 --  -0.8%  +0.6%

 Ex Transport      --       -- to --                    --  +0.2%  +0.4%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 2.1% in August. 

Durable goods orders rose by 4.5% in the month on a jump in 

transportation orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise 

modestly on an increase in energy prices. Durable orders excluding 

transportation were up only 0.1%, so total factory orders excluding 

transportation are expected to post another small gain. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18 

 Payrolls       +190k    +150k to +220k                --  +201k  +147k 

 Private Jobs   +185k    +145k to +206k                --  +204k  +153k

 Jobless Rate    3.8%     3.8% to 3.9%                 --   3.9%   3.9%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                --  +0.4%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in 

September after a stronger-than-expected 201,000 rise in August. The 

effects of Hurricane Florence may be limited because it occurred very 

late in the survey week. The unemployment rate is expected to slip to 

3.8% after staying at 3.9% in August after rounding. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise by 0.3% after solid gains in the previous two months, 

but a 0.5% gain in September 2017 due to the hurricanes that month 

should reduce the year/year rate this year. The average workweek is 

expected to hold steady for another month at 34.5 hours. 

Trade in Goods and Services for August (deficit, billion $)           

 Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                Aug18   Jul18   Jun18

 Trade Gap    -$53.4b  -$54.0b to -$47.2b             -- -$50.1b -$45.7b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $53.4 

billion in August from $50.1 billion in July. The advance estimate of 

the Census goods trade gap widened further to $75.8 billion, as exports 

fell and imports rose. 

Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions)                   

 Friday, October 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Aug18   Jul18   Jun18

 Cons Cred   +$14.5b +$10.0b to +$16.0b               -- +$16.6b  +$8.5b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $14.5 billion in 

August after a solid $16.6 billion gain in July. Retail sales were up 

only 0.1% in August overall and 0.3% excluding a 0.8% decline in motor 

vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth slowed.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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