US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Nov 9/17:06 EST Nov 9

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Treasury Statement for October ($ billions)                           

 Tuesday, November 13 at 2:00 p.m ET                     Actual:        

             Median           Range              Oct18    Sep18    Oct17

 Balance   -$124.0b   -$124.0b to -$124.0b          -- +$119.1b  -$63.2b

     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $124.0 billion 

deficit in October to start the fiscal year. The Treasury posted a $63.2 

billion deficit in October 2017, when some of the early-month transfer 

payments shifted into September. 

Consumer Price Index for October (percent change)                       

 Wednesday, November 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 CPI           +0.3%    +0.3% to +0.4%                  --  +0.1%  +0.2% 

 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in October after a 

smaller-than-expected 0.1% gain in September. The impact of Hurricane 

Michael is likely to be seen in a rebound in energy prices, reflecting 

damage to some energy production facilities. Food prices could see an 

impact as well. AAA reported a rise in mid-month prices from September, 

which could lift seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a 0.2% 

decline in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% 

following softer-than-expected 0.1% increases in both August and 

September. Analysts expect a rebound in used vehicle prices to add to 

the core reading. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for November 10 week                                

 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov10  Nov03  Oct27

 Weekly Claims   213k     210k to 215k                  --   214k   215k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 1,000 for a third straight week, this time to a level of 213,000. The 

four-week moving average would still rise by 750 in the coming week as 

the 210,000 level in the October 13 rolls out of the calculation, 

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

Retail and Food Sales for October (percent change)                       

 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Retail Sales   +0.6%    +0.2% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.6%    +0.2% to +0.6%                 --  -0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% in October after a 

weaker than expected 0.1% gain in September. Not seasonally adjusted 

industry motor vehicle sales improved modestly in October, while AAA 

reported that gasoline prices rose slightly in mid-October from one 

month earlier. Motor vehicle sales should pick up further in the South 

as part of the hurricane recovery. Retail sales are expected to be up 

0.6% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.1% decline in September. 

Empire State Index for November (diffusion index)

 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Empire Index      21.0    15.0 to 22.2                 --   21.1   19.0

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall very slightly 

to 21.0 in November after a modest rebound to 21.1 in October. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for November (diffusion index)

 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Phila Fed         20.0    15.0 to 21.0                 --   22.2   22.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a 

reading of 20.0 in November after holding roughly steady at 22.2 in 

October. 

Business Inventories for September (percent change)                      

 Thursday, November 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Inventories   +0.3%      +0.3% to +0.3%                --  +0.5%  +0.7%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% in 

September. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.5% in the 

month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.4%, and the advance report 

showed retail inventories rose by 0.1%. Taken together, an MNI 

calculation looks for a 0.3% increase for business inventories at this 

point, so the median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to 

retail inventories. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.9% and 

wholesale sales were up 0.2%, while the advance estimate for retail 

trade sales was a 0.4% gain, so the data suggest business sales were up 

0.5% in the month pending any revision to retail trade sales. 

Industrial Production for October (percent change)

 Friday, November 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Ind Prod      +0.0%     -0.4% to +0.2%                 --  +0.3%  +0.4% 

 Cap Util      78.1%     77.9% to 78.2%                 --  78.1%  78.1% 

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to hold steady in 

October after a 0.3% gain in September. The impacts of Hurricane Michael 

may not center on mining production, as they have with past hurricanes, 

but rather on weaker readings for the manufacturing and utilities 

portions of the report. Factory payrolls rose by 32,000 in October, 

while auto production jobs rose by 7,000. However, the factory workweek 

was shorter at 40.8 hours, down slightly from 40.9 hours in September. 

The ISM production index dipped to 59.9 in the current month from 63.9 

in the previous month. Utilities production is expected remain nearly 

steady for a second straight month, though warmer-than-usual 

temperatures add some upside risk. Mining production is expected to 

continue its string of gains. Capacity utilization is forecast to stay 

at 78.1%.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]