US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for November (mln units, saar)                  

 Monday, December 3                                      Actual:

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Sales Ex GM                                            --  10.1m  10.2m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales is expected to 

rise in November after dipping modestly in October, as vehicles damaged 

in the hurricanes and California wildfires were replaced. Seasonal 

adjustment factors will be a smaller addition to November unadjusted 

sales than they were in the previous month. 

Construction Spending for October (percent change)                        

 Monday, December 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Construction   +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.4%                 --   Flat  +0.8%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.4% in 

October after a flat September reading. Housing starts rebounded in the 

month, a positive for private residential building. The hurricane 

impacts should be a positive for both residential and nonresidential 

building in the coming months, as damaged structures need to be rebuilt. 

ISM Manufacturing Index for November                                       

 Monday, December 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Mfg ISM         57.4     58.3 to 56.7                  --   57.7   59.8

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall further 

to a reading of 57.4 in November after falling back further to 57.7 in 

October. Regional conditions data have been mixed, with the Philadelphia 

Fed, Dallas Fed, and Richmond Fed indexes declining, but the Empire 

State and Kansas City readings up. The MNI Chicago index rose sharply in 

the month, while the flash Markit reading declined slightly to 55.4 in 

November from 55.7 in October. 

Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, revised (ann rate % change) 

 Wednesday, December 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                   Median           Range          3Q18r   3Q18p    2Q18

 Productivity       +2.3%      +2.2% to +2.8%         --   +2.2%   +3.0% 

 Unit Labor Costs   +1.1%      +0.8% to +1.2%         --   +1.2%   -1.0%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up 

slightly to a 2.3% pace from the 2.2% gain in the preliminary estimate, 

on a small upward revision to the output component. Unit labor cost 

growth is expected to be revised down to a 1.1% pace from the 1.2% gain 

previously reported. 

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November 

 Wednesday, December 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 ISM NMI         59.0     57.5 to 60.0                  --   60.3   61.6

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to 

a reading of 59.0 in November after slipping to 60.3 in October. The 

Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index rose to 43.3 from 37.6 in October 

and the Dallas nonmanufacturing reading slipped to 11.4 from 14.1. The 

flash Markit Services index fell to 54.4 from 54.8 in October. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 1 week                                

 Thursday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Dec01  Nov24  Nov17

 Weekly Claims   225k      225k to 225k                 --   234k   224k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 9,000 to a 225,000 level in the December 1 week after an increase of 

10,000 to 234,000 level in the previous week, the highest level since 

May. The level of claims has been elevated above the prevailing trend in 

recent weeks, possibly due to seasonal adjustment difficulties related 

to the proximity of the Veteran's Day and Thanksgiving holidays. The 

four-week moving average would rise by 2,750 in the coming week as the 

214,000 level in the November 3 rolls out of the calculation, assuming 

the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

Trade in Goods and Services for October (deficit, billion $)           

 Thursday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                Oct18   Sep18   Aug18

 Trade Gap     -$54.6   -$55.2 to -$53.5              -- -$54.0b -$53.3b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $54.6 

billion in October from $54.0 billion in September. The advance estimate 

of the Census goods trade gap widened to $77.2 billion, as exports fell 

and import rose. 

Factory Orders for October (percent change)                             

 Thursday, December 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18  

 New Orders     -2.1%    -2.2% to -1.9%                 --  +0.7%  +2.6%

 Ex Transport    --         -- to --                    --  +0.4%  +0.4%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 2.1% in October. 

Durable goods orders fell by 4.4% in the month on a sharp drop in 

aircraft orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise on strong 

energy prices. Durable orders excluding transportation were up only 

0.1%, so total factory orders excluding transportation are expected to 

decline. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, December 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18 

 Payrolls        194k      188k to 205k                --  +250k  +118k

 Private Jobs    195k      190k to 200k                --  +246k  +121k

 Jobless Rate    3.7%      3.7% to 3.7%                --   3.7%   3.7%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5      34.5 to 34.5                --   34.5   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 194,000 in 

November after a much stronger-than-expected 250,000 rise in October, a 

rebound from the previous month's weak reading. The unemployment rate is 

expected to hold steady at 3.7% for a third straight month. Hourly 

earnings are forecast to rise 0.2%, with the year/year rate likely to 

slip back from the 3.1% rate posted in October due to base effects. The 

average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours in October. 

University of Michigan Survey for December (preliminary)          

 Friday, December 7 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                Median        Range                 Dec18p  Nov18  Oct18

 Consumer Sent    98.0    97.0 to 98.0                  --   97.5   98.6

     Comment: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a 

reading of 98.0 in early-December, helped by rising stock prices and 

lower gasoline price. 

Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions)                   

 Friday, December 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Oct18   Sep18   Aug18

 Cons Cred    +$15.6  +$15.0 to +$17.0                -- +$10.9b +$22.9b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $15.6 billion in 

October after a smaller $10.9 billion gain in September. Retail sales 

were up 0.8% in October overall and were still up 0.7% excluding a 1.1% 

surge in motor vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth 

accelerated.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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