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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for November (mln units, saar)                  
 Monday, December 3                                      Actual:
               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 Sales Ex GM                                            --  10.1m  10.2m
     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales is expected to 
rise in November after dipping modestly in October, as vehicles damaged 
in the hurricanes and California wildfires were replaced. Seasonal 
adjustment factors will be a smaller addition to November unadjusted 
sales than they were in the previous month. 
Construction Spending for October (percent change)                        
 Monday, December 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 Construction   +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.4%                 --   Flat  +0.8%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.4% in 
October after a flat September reading. Housing starts rebounded in the 
month, a positive for private residential building. The hurricane 
impacts should be a positive for both residential and nonresidential 
building in the coming months, as damaged structures need to be rebuilt. 
ISM Manufacturing Index for November                                       
 Monday, December 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 Mfg ISM         57.4     58.3 to 56.7                  --   57.7   59.8
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall further 
to a reading of 57.4 in November after falling back further to 57.7 in 
October. Regional conditions data have been mixed, with the Philadelphia 
Fed, Dallas Fed, and Richmond Fed indexes declining, but the Empire 
State and Kansas City readings up. The MNI Chicago index rose sharply in 
the month, while the flash Markit reading declined slightly to 55.4 in 
November from 55.7 in October. 
Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, revised (ann rate % change) 
 Wednesday, December 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                   Median           Range          3Q18r   3Q18p    2Q18
 Productivity       +2.3%      +2.2% to +2.8%         --   +2.2%   +3.0% 
 Unit Labor Costs   +1.1%      +0.8% to +1.2%         --   +1.2%   -1.0%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up 
slightly to a 2.3% pace from the 2.2% gain in the preliminary estimate, 
on a small upward revision to the output component. Unit labor cost 
growth is expected to be revised down to a 1.1% pace from the 1.2% gain 
previously reported. 
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November 
 Wednesday, December 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 ISM NMI         59.0     57.5 to 60.0                  --   60.3   61.6
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to 
a reading of 59.0 in November after slipping to 60.3 in October. The 
Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index rose to 43.3 from 37.6 in October 
and the Dallas nonmanufacturing reading slipped to 11.4 from 14.1. The 
flash Markit Services index fell to 54.4 from 54.8 in October. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for December 1 week                                
 Thursday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Dec01  Nov24  Nov17
 Weekly Claims   225k      225k to 225k                 --   234k   224k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 
by 9,000 to a 225,000 level in the December 1 week after an increase of 
10,000 to 234,000 level in the previous week, the highest level since 
May. The level of claims has been elevated above the prevailing trend in 
recent weeks, possibly due to seasonal adjustment difficulties related 
to the proximity of the Veteran's Day and Thanksgiving holidays. The 
four-week moving average would rise by 2,750 in the coming week as the 
214,000 level in the November 3 rolls out of the calculation, assuming 
the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 
Trade in Goods and Services for October (deficit, billion $)           
 Thursday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                Oct18   Sep18   Aug18
 Trade Gap     -$54.6   -$55.2 to -$53.5              -- -$54.0b -$53.3b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $54.6 
billion in October from $54.0 billion in September. The advance estimate 
of the Census goods trade gap widened to $77.2 billion, as exports fell 
and import rose. 
Factory Orders for October (percent change)                             
 Thursday, December 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18  
 New Orders     -2.1%    -2.2% to -1.9%                 --  +0.7%  +2.6%
 Ex Transport    --         -- to --                    --  +0.4%  +0.4%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 2.1% in October. 
Durable goods orders fell by 4.4% in the month on a sharp drop in 
aircraft orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise on strong 
energy prices. Durable orders excluding transportation were up only 
0.1%, so total factory orders excluding transportation are expected to 
Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, December 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18 
 Payrolls        194k      188k to 205k                --  +250k  +118k
 Private Jobs    195k      190k to 200k                --  +246k  +121k
 Jobless Rate    3.7%      3.7% to 3.7%                --   3.7%   3.7%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  +0.3%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5      34.5 to 34.5                --   34.5   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 194,000 in 
November after a much stronger-than-expected 250,000 rise in October, a 
rebound from the previous month's weak reading. The unemployment rate is 
expected to hold steady at 3.7% for a third straight month. Hourly 
earnings are forecast to rise 0.2%, with the year/year rate likely to 
slip back from the 3.1% rate posted in October due to base effects. The 
average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours in October. 
University of Michigan Survey for December (preliminary)          
 Friday, December 7 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:
                Median        Range                 Dec18p  Nov18  Oct18
 Consumer Sent    98.0    97.0 to 98.0                  --   97.5   98.6
     Comment: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a 
reading of 98.0 in early-December, helped by rising stock prices and 
lower gasoline price. 
Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions)                   
 Friday, December 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                   Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Oct18   Sep18   Aug18
 Cons Cred    +$15.6  +$15.0 to +$17.0                -- +$10.9b +$22.9b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $15.6 billion in 
October after a smaller $10.9 billion gain in September. Retail sales 
were up 0.8% in October overall and were still up 0.7% excluding a 1.1% 
surge in motor vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email:

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