US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Retail and Food Sales for November (percent change)                       

 Friday, December 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Retail Sales   +0.1%    -0.2% to +0.6%                 --  +0.8%  -0.1%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.1%    -0.2% to +0.5%                 --  +0.7%  -0.1%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise only 0.1% in November 

after a stronger than expected 0.8% gain in October. Not seasonally 

adjusted industry motor vehicle sales slipped in November, while AAA 

reported that gasoline prices fell sharply in mid-November from one 

month earlier. Retail sales are expected to also rise 0.1% excluding 

motor vehicles after a 0.7% jump in October. 

Industrial Production for November (percent change)

 Friday, December 14 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Ind Prod      +0.5%     +0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2% 

 Cap Util      78.7%     78.5% to 78.8%                 --  78.4%  78.5% 

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% in 

November after a 0.1% rise in October. Factory payrolls rose by 27,000 

in November, but auto production jobs fell by 1,000 and the factory 

workweek was unchanged at 40.8 hours. The ISM production index rose to 

60.6 in the current month from 59.9 in the previous month. Utilities 

production is expected to rebound modestly in the month after a 0.5% 

decline in October, while mining production is forecast to return to 

their increasing trend after two straight decline, though falling oil 

prices are a downside risk. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 

78.7% from 78.4% in October. 

Business Inventories for October (percent change)                      

 Friday, December 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Inventories   +0.6%      +0.6% to +0.7%                --  +0.3%  +0.5%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.6% in 

October. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.1% in the 

month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.8%, and the advance report 

showed retail inventories rose by 0.9%. Taken together, an MNI 

calculation looks for a 0.6% increase for business inventories at this 

point, so the median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to 

retail inventories. As for sales, factory shipments fell 0.1% and 

wholesale sales were down 0.2%, while the advance estimate for retail 

trade sales was a 0.9% surge, so the data suggest business sales were up 

0.2% in the month pending any revision to retail trade sales.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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