US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 22 week                                

 Thursday, December 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Dec22  Dec15  Dec08

 Weekly Claims                                          --   214k   206k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold 

roughly steady in the December 22 week after an increase of 8,000 to 

214,000 level in the previous week. The prevalence of holidays in 

November and December make seasonal adjustment difficult at the end of 

the year. The four-week moving average would decline in the coming week 

as the 235,000 level in the November 24 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

New Home Sales for November (annual rate)

 Thursday, December 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 New Homes       544k      544k to 544k                 --   544k   597k 

     Comments: New home sales are expected to remain near a 544,000 

annual rate in November following a sharp decline in October. Unadjusted 

sales were down 14.3% from a year earlier in October. Meanwhile, home 

supply was up 4.3% month/month and 17.5% year/year, so prices have 

pushed lower. 

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for December (index)

 Thursday, December 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Confidence     134.6     133.0 to 135.0                --  135.7  137.9

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to fall 

further to a reading of 134.6 in December after small November decline. 

However,the Michigan Sentiment index rose to 98.3 in December from 97.5 

in November. 

MNI Chicago Report for December (index)                                 

 Friday, December 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 MNI Chicago                                            --   66.4   58.4

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to pull back in December 

after a sharp rise to 66.4 in November. Other regional data already 

released have suggested softer conditions, with the Empire State, Kansas 

City and Philadelphia Fed indexes all down from November.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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