US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for January 19 week                                

 Thursday, January 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Jan12  Jan05

 Weekly Claims   210k     208k to 220k                  --   213k   216k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 3,000 to 210,000 in the January 19 week after a decline of 3,000 to a 

208,000 level in the previous week, a continuation of the volatility 

normally seen at the start of the year. The impact of the government 

shutdown may be seen in coming weeks as a portion of the furloughed 

government workers file for benefits. The level of filings by Federal 

workers, which lags by a week, more than doubled to 10,454 in the 

January 5 week and is likely to move even higher. The four-week moving 

average would decline further in the coming week as the 221,000 level in 

the December 22 week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI 

forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

Leading Indicators for December (percent change)

 Thursday, January 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:

                 Median         Range                Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Leading Index    -0.1%    -0.2% to +0.1%               --  +0.2%  -0.3%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to fall by 

0.1% in December, the same as in November. Sharp declines in both stock 

prices and consumer expectations should be key negative factors. Data on 

factory orders and building permits, components in the index of leading 

indicators, have not been released this month due to the Federal 

Government shutdown.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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