US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for January 

 Tuesday, February 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 ISM NMI        56.9      56.0 to 58.3                  --   58.0   60.4

     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to fall to 

56.9 in January from a revised 58.0 reading in December. The 

Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing index fell to 1.0, while the Markit 

Services index declined slightly to 54.2. 

Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 

 Wednesday, February 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                   Median           Range          4Q18p    3Q18    2Q18

 Productivity       +1.5%      +1.0% to +1.7%         --   +2.3%   +3.0% 

 Unit Labor Costs   +1.8%      +1.6% to +2.2%         --   +0.9%   -2.8%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 1.5% in the 

preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter after a 2.3% rise in the 

previous quarter. The absence of GDP growth data from the Commerce 

Department will impact this data, as the BLS said it will not be able to 

produce any of its normal headline series. Unit labor costs are expected 

to rise by 1.8% in the quarter, much faster than the 0.9% gain in the 

third quarter. 

Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $)           

 Wednesday, February 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                Nov18   Oct18   Sep18

 Trade Gap    -$54.7b  -$60.0b to -$52.0b            -- -$55.5b -$54.6b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to 

$54.7 billion in November from $55.5 billion in October. With the 

absence of the advance trade data, this report takes on more importance 

this month. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 2 week                                

 Thursday, February 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jan26  Jan19  Jan12

 Weekly Claims   220k     215k to 221k                  --   253k   200k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

back to a 220,000 level in the February 2 week after a surge of 53,000 

to a 253,000 level in the previous week, though it is not likely to 

payback all of the previous week's gains. The volatility in recent weeks 

can be largely attributed to seasonal adjustment issues around the 

holiday week, storms, teachers strikes, and the side effects of the 

government shutdown. The four-week moving average would rise by 1,000 

this week as the 216,000 level in the January 5 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

Consumer Credit for December (dollar change, billions)                   

 Thursday, February 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Dec18   Nov18   Oct18

 Cons Cred    $16.5b   $15.0 to $18.0                 -- +$22.1b +$25.0b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $16.5 billion at 

an annual rate in December after solid gains in the previous two months.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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