US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Construction Spending for December (percent change)                        

 Monday, March 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Construction   +0.2%     -0.4 to +1.0%                 --  +0.8%  +0.1%

     Comments: The value of construction spending is expected to rise by 

only 0.2% in December, reflecting an expected soft reading in 

residential construction that should be offset by stronger 

nonresidential building. Housing starts plunged by 11.2% in the month, a 

negative for residential construction activity. 

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for February 

 Tuesday, March 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 ISM NMI         57.4     57.0 to 58.7                  --   56.7   58.0

     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to rise to 

57.4 in February after falling to 56.7 in January. The Philadelphia Fed 

nonmanufacturing index rose to 10.0, while the Dallas Services index 

rose to 2.0 and the Markit Services index rose to 56.2. 

New Home Sales for December (annual rate)

 Tuesday, March 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 New Homes       590k     560k to 660k                  --   657k   562k 

     Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to fall back to a 

590,000 SAAR in December after a sharp gain in the previous month. This 

is the first of three new home sales releases in March, as Commerce is 

trying to catch up from the shutdown. The other two releases this month 

are on March 14 (January data) and March 29 (February data). 

Treasury Statement for January ($ billions)                           

 Tuesday, March 5 at 2:00 p.m ET                         Actual:        

             Median           Range              Jan19   Dec18    Jan18

 Balance     +$6.0b     +$6.0b to +$6.0b            -- -$13.5b  +$49.2b

     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $6.0 billion budget 

surplus in the January tax month, much smaller than the $49.2 billion 

surplus in January 2018. The February data will be released on March 22. 

Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $)           

 Wednesday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                Dec18   Nov18   Oct18

 Trade Gap    -$57.0b  -$58.4b to -$50.8b             -- -$49.3b -$55.7b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen sharply 

to $57.0 billion in December from $49.3 billion in November. The GDP 

data already showed that net exports were a larger subtraction from 

fourth quarter growth than the previous quarter. The advance trade 

report released on February 27 indicated that the census trade gap 

widened sharply to $79.5 billion from $70.5 billion in the previous 

month. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 2 week                                

 Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Mar02  Feb23  Feb16

 Weekly Claims   225k     225k to 229k                  --   225k   217k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold 

steady around 225,000 in the March 2 week after an increase in the 

previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 2,500 this 

week as the 235,000 level in the February 2 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, revised (ann rate % change) 

 Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                   Median           Range          4Q18r   4Q18p    3Q18

 Productivity       +1.7%      +1.5% to +2.0%         --      NA   +2.2% 

 Unit Labor Costs   +1.8%      +1.4% to +2.0%         --      NA   +0.9%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 1.7% in the 

fourth quarter after a 2.2% gain in the third quarter, as the newly 

release GDP data suggest that output growth slowed from the previous 

quarter. Unit labor costs are expected to rise by 1.8% for the quarter 

after a 0.9% increase in the third quarter. 

Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions)                   

 Thursday, March 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Jan19   Dec18   Nov18

 Cons Cred   +$16.8b +$16.0b to +$17.0b               -- +$16.6b +$22.4b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $16.8 billion at 

an annual rate in January, continuing a string of solid gains. Retail 

sales data for January have not been released yet, but vehicle sales 

were a bit softer. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for February (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Payrolls       +190k    +141k to +220k                 --  +304k  +222k

 Private Jobs   +170k    +134k to +222k                 --  +296k  +206k

 Jobless Rate    3.9%     3.7% to  4.0%                 --   4.0%   3.9%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.1%  +0.4%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to  34.5                 --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rose by 190,000 in 

February after a much stronger-than-expected 304,000 rise in January. 

The unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 3.9% after rising 

to 4.0% in the previous month. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 

0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for 

another month. 

Housing Starts for January (annual rate, million) 

 Friday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Starts    1.160m      1.100m to 1.180m                 -- 1.078m 1.214m 

     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to partially 

rebound to a 1.160 million pace in January after slowing dramatically in 

December. The Federal Government shutdown and the inability to process 

government loans are both negatives risks for the month. Unadjusted 

starts were down nearly 12% from a year earlier in December, a further 

sign that home building has stagnated.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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