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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Construction Spending for December (percent change)                        
 Monday, March 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18
 Construction   +0.2%     -0.4 to +1.0%                 --  +0.8%  +0.1%
     Comments: The value of construction spending is expected to rise by 
only 0.2% in December, reflecting an expected soft reading in 
residential construction that should be offset by stronger 
nonresidential building. Housing starts plunged by 11.2% in the month, a 
negative for residential construction activity. 
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for February 
 Tuesday, March 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 ISM NMI         57.4     57.0 to 58.7                  --   56.7   58.0
     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to rise to 
57.4 in February after falling to 56.7 in January. The Philadelphia Fed 
nonmanufacturing index rose to 10.0, while the Dallas Services index 
rose to 2.0 and the Markit Services index rose to 56.2. 
New Home Sales for December (annual rate)
 Tuesday, March 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18
 New Homes       590k     560k to 660k                  --   657k   562k 
     Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to fall back to a 
590,000 SAAR in December after a sharp gain in the previous month. This 
is the first of three new home sales releases in March, as Commerce is 
trying to catch up from the shutdown. The other two releases this month 
are on March 14 (January data) and March 29 (February data). 
Treasury Statement for January ($ billions)                           
 Tuesday, March 5 at 2:00 p.m ET                         Actual:        
             Median           Range              Jan19   Dec18    Jan18
 Balance     +$6.0b     +$6.0b to +$6.0b            -- -$13.5b  +$49.2b
     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $6.0 billion budget 
surplus in the January tax month, much smaller than the $49.2 billion 
surplus in January 2018. The February data will be released on March 22. 
Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $)           
 Wednesday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                Dec18   Nov18   Oct18
 Trade Gap    -$57.0b  -$58.4b to -$50.8b             -- -$49.3b -$55.7b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen sharply 
to $57.0 billion in December from $49.3 billion in November. The GDP 
data already showed that net exports were a larger subtraction from 
fourth quarter growth than the previous quarter. The advance trade 
report released on February 27 indicated that the census trade gap 
widened sharply to $79.5 billion from $70.5 billion in the previous 
month. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 2 week                                
 Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Mar02  Feb23  Feb16
 Weekly Claims   225k     225k to 229k                  --   225k   217k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold 
steady around 225,000 in the March 2 week after an increase in the 
previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 2,500 this 
week as the 235,000 level in the February 2 week rolls out of the 
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 
revisions. 
Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, revised (ann rate % change) 
 Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
                   Median           Range          4Q18r   4Q18p    3Q18
 Productivity       +1.7%      +1.5% to +2.0%         --      NA   +2.2% 
 Unit Labor Costs   +1.8%      +1.4% to +2.0%         --      NA   +0.9%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 1.7% in the 
fourth quarter after a 2.2% gain in the third quarter, as the newly 
release GDP data suggest that output growth slowed from the previous 
quarter. Unit labor costs are expected to rise by 1.8% for the quarter 
after a 0.9% increase in the third quarter. 
Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions)                   
 Thursday, March 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Jan19   Dec18   Nov18
 Cons Cred   +$16.8b +$16.0b to +$17.0b               -- +$16.6b +$22.4b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $16.8 billion at 
an annual rate in January, continuing a string of solid gains. Retail 
sales data for January have not been released yet, but vehicle sales 
were a bit softer. 
Nonfarm Payrolls for February (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 Payrolls       +190k    +141k to +220k                 --  +304k  +222k
 Private Jobs   +170k    +134k to +222k                 --  +296k  +206k
 Jobless Rate    3.9%     3.7% to  4.0%                 --   4.0%   3.9%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.1%  +0.4%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to  34.5                 --   34.5   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rose by 190,000 in 
February after a much stronger-than-expected 304,000 rise in January. 
The unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 3.9% after rising 
to 4.0% in the previous month. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 
0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for 
another month. 
Housing Starts for January (annual rate, million) 
 Friday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Jan19  Dec18  Nov18
 Starts    1.160m      1.100m to 1.180m                 -- 1.078m 1.214m 
     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to partially 
rebound to a 1.160 million pace in January after slowing dramatically in 
December. The Federal Government shutdown and the inability to process 
government loans are both negatives risks for the month. Unadjusted 
starts were down nearly 12% from a year earlier in December, a further 
sign that home building has stagnated.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

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