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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Housing Starts for February (annual rate, million)
Tuesday, March 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb19 Jan19 Dec18
Starts 1.210m 1.129m to 1.330m -- 1.230m 1.037m
Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to slow to a 1.210
million pace in February after rebounding sharply in January. Unadjusted
starts were down nearly 10% from a year earlier in January, a further
sign that home building has stagnated.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (index)
Tuesday, March 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar19 Feb19 Jan19
Confidence 133.0 129.0 to 136.5 -- 131.4 121.7
Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to advance
further to a reading of 133.0 in March after rebounding to 131.4 in
February after the resolution of the government shutdown. The
preliminary Michigan Sentiment index rose to 97.8 in early-March from
93.8 in the previous month.
Trade in Goods and Services for January (deficit, billion $)
Wednesday, March 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan19 Dec18 Nov18
Trade Gap -$57.5b -$58.4b to -$55.0b -- -$59.8b -$50.3b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow
slightly to a still large $57.5 billion in January after a sharp
widening to $59.8 billion in December, still suggesting a large drag for
Q1 from net exports. There were no advance trade data released this
month.
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 23 week
Thursday, March 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar23 Mar16 Mar09
Weekly Claims 223k 215k to 225k -- 221k 230k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to
rebound by 2,000 to 223,000 in the March 23 week after a decrease of
9,000 in the previous week. Annual revisions will be included in this
week's data. The four-week moving average would fall by only 750 this
week as the 226,000 level in the February 23 rolls out of the
calculation, but annual revisions would alter that projection.
GDP for Fourth Quarter (revised estimate)
Thursday, March 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 4Q18r 4Q18i 3Q18
GDP +2.4% +1.8% to +2.6% -- +2.6% +3.4%
Chain Prices +1.8% +1.8% to +1.8% -- +1.8% +1.8%
Comments: Analysts expect fourth quarter GDP to be revised down to
a 2.4% rate of growth from the 2.6% initial estimate, keeping it below
the 3.4% pace in the third quarter, but ahead of some estimates for the
first quarter. The chain price index is expected to be unrevised at a
1.8% rate in the initial estimate and final third quarter reading.
Personal Income for February (percent change)
Friday, March 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb19 Jan19 Dec18
Income +0.3% Flat to +0.4% -- -0.1% +1.0%
Spending (Jan) +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% -- -- -0.5%
Core Prices(Jan)+0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% -- -- +0.2%
Comments: Personal income is expected to rebound by 0.3% in
February despite a drastic slowdown in employment growth and shorter
workweek that was offset by a 0.4% increase in hourly earnings. This
follows a 0.1% decline in January. Due to the after-effects of the
shutdown, only January PCE data will be reported due to a lack of Census
data and it is expected to rise by 0.3% due to rebound in retail sales.
Core PCE prices are seen up 0.2% in January, keeping the year/year rate
at 1.9%.
MNI Chicago Report for March (index)
Friday, March 29 at 9:45 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar19 Feb19 Jan19
MNI Chicago 62.0 60.0 to 64.0 -- 64.7 56.7
Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to pull back to a still
brisk reading of 62.0 in March after a solid gain to 64.7 in February.
Other regional data already released have been mixed, with the Empire
State index down and the Philadelphia Fed index up.
New Home Sales for February (annual rate)
Friday, March 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb19 Jan19 Dec18
New Homes 618k 600k to 640k -- 607k 652k
Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to partially
rebound to a 618,000 annual rate in February after pulling back in
January. The pace of sales remains below their year ago level.
University of Michigan Survey for March (final)
Friday, March 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar19f Mar19p Feb19
Consumer Sent 97.8 97.0 to 98.0 -- 97.8 93.8
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised
at a reading of 97.8 in March. This would keep the index well above the
93.8 reading in February.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.