US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Mar 29/17:06 EST Mar 29

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Retail and Food Sales for February (percent change)                      

 Monday, April 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Retail Sales  +0.3%     -0.4% to +0.5%                 --  +0.2%  -1.6%

 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.4%     -0.2% to +0.6%                 --  +0.9%  -2.1%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% in February 

after a 0.2% rebound in January. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor 

vehicle sales were roughly steady in February, while AAA reported that 

gasoline prices rose modestly in mid-February from one month earlier. 

Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% excluding motor vehicles after 

a 0.9% rebound in January. 

Business Inventories for January (percent change)                      

 Monday, April 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

              Median           Range                 Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Inventories  +0.4%       -0.3% to +0.5%                --  +0.6%   Flat

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.4% in 

January. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.5% in the 

month, while wholesale inventories jumped 1.2%. There was no advance 

retail inventories report for January. As for sales, factory shipments 

fell by 0.4% and wholesale sales were up 0.5%, while the advance 

estimate for retail trade sales was a modest 0.2% gain, so the data 

suggest business sales were up 0.1% in the month pending any revision to 

retail trade sales. 

Construction Spending for February (percent change)                        

 Monday, April 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Construction  +0.1%     -0.8% to +1.0%                 --  +1.3%  -0.8%

     Comments: The value of construction spending is expected to rise by 

0.1% in February after a sharp 1.3% gain in January, which was led by 

public construction. Housing starts fell by 8.7% in the month, 

suggesting a further residential construction decline. 

ISM Manufacturing Index for March                                       

 Monday, April 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Mfg ISM        54.6      53.3 to 56.0                  --   54.2   56.6

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to tick up to a 

reading of 54.6 in March after a February dip. Regional conditions data 

have been mixed, while the flash Markit manufacturing index fell to 

52.5. 

Durable Goods Orders for February (percent change)

 Tuesday, April 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18 

 New Orders    -1.6%     -3.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.3%  +1.3% 

 Ex-Transport  Flat      -2.2% to +0.5%                 --  -0.2%  +0.3%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to fall by 1.6% in 

February after rising by 0.3% in January. Boeing orders fell sharply in 

February, which should allow transportation orders to pull back. Durable 

goods orders excluding transportation are expected to hold steady after 

a 0.2% decline in January. 

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for March (mln units, saar)                  

 Tuesday, April 2                                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.1m   7.1m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales excluding GM and 

Ford is expected to slip modesty in March after holding roughly steady 

in February. Seasonal factors will be a large subtraction from 

unadjusted claims after adding to them in February. 

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for March

 Wednesday, April 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 ISM NMI        58.0      57.0 to 59.7                  --   59.7   56.7

     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to fall to a 

reading of 58.0 in March after rising to 59.7 in February. The 

Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing index surged to 21.7, the Kansas City 

services reading declined to -2, and the Dallas Services index fell to 

-4.4 and the flash Markit Services index fell to 54.8. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 30 week                                

 Thursday, April 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Mar30  Mar23  Mar16

 Weekly Claims  216k      210k to 220k                  --   211k   216k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 4,000 to 215,000 in the April 5 week after a decrease of 5,000 in the 

previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 750 this week 

as the 218,000 level in the March 2 rolls out of the calculation. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, April 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Payrolls      +170k     +145k to +243k                 --   +20k  +311k

 Private Jobs  +165k     +140k to +246k                 --   +25k  +308k

 Jobless Rate   3.8%      3.7% to  3.9%                 --   3.8%   4.0%

 Hrly Earnings +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.4%  +0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.5      34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 170,000 in March 

after a much weaker-than-expected 20,000 rise in February. The 

unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.8%. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise by 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to 

rebound slightly to 34.5 hours after falling to 34.4 hours in February. 

Consumer Credit for February (dollar change, billions)                   

 Friday, April 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Feb19   Jan19   Dec18

 Cons Cred     17.0     13.0 to 18.0                  -- +$17.0b +$15.4b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $17.0 billion at 

an annual rate in February, continuing a string of solid gains.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]