US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Factory Orders for February (percent change)                             

 Monday, April 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 New Orders     -0.6%    -1.2% to -0.3%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%

 Ex Transport    --        --  to   --                  --  -0.2%  -0.5%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.6% in February 

after a 0.1% gain in January. Durable goods orders were already reported 

as down 1.6% on a sharp aircraft decline, while nondurable orders are 

expected to rebound on higher energy prices in the month after a decline 

in the previous month. Factory orders ex. transportation are expected to 

rebound after a 0.2% decline in January. Durable goods orders excluding 

transportation rose 0.1% in February. 

Consumer Price Index for March (percent change)                       

 Wednesday, April 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 CPI          +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.5%                  --  +0.2%   Flat 

 CPI Core     +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                  --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% in March after a 0.2% 

gain in the previous month. Gasoline prices are expected to post a 

further gain, as suggested by the monthly AAA data. Food prices are 

expected to moderate after posting a 0.4% rise in February. The core CPI 

is forecast to rise 0.2% following a below trend 0.1% increase in the 

previous month. Lower vehicle prices and a plunge in drug prices were 

factors. 

Treasury Statement for March ($ billions)                           

 Wednesday, April 10 at 2:00 p.m. ET                     Actual:

             Median           Range             Mar19    Feb19    Mar18

 Balance   -$179.0b   -$179.0b to -$179.0b         -- -$234.0b -$208.7b

     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $179.0 billion 

budget deficit in March, smaller than the $208.7 billion deficit in 

March 2018. However, the 2019 fiscal year gap remains on track to 

eclipse the previous fiscal year's deficit by a wide margin. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for April 6 week                                

 Thursday, April 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Apr06  Mar30  Mar23

 Weekly Claims  210k      210k to 215k                  --   202k   212k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 

rebound by 8,000 to 210,000 in the April 6 week after a decrease of 

10,000 in the previous week to a new 50-year low. The four-week moving 

average would fall by 3,500 this week as the 224,000 level in the March 

9 rolls out of the calculation. The average could reach the lowest level 

in decades, in contrast to other signs of a softer labor market. 

Producer Price Index for March (percent change)

 Thursday, April 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Final Demand     +0.3%    +0.3% to +0.4%               --  +0.1%  -0.1% 

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%               --  +0.1%  +0.3%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.3% in March 

after a 0.1% February increase. Energy prices are expected to rise 

further following a 1.8% February increase, while food prices are 

expected to rebound after a 0.3% decline, with flooding in the Midwest 

one factor. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 

0.2% after a 0.1% February gain. 

University of Michigan Survey for April (preliminary)          

 Friday, April 12 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:

                Median        Range                 Apr19p  Mar19  Feb19

 Consumer Sent   98.3     97.5 to 98.3                 --    98.4   93.8

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to tick down to 

a reading of 98.3 in early-April after rising sharply to 98.4 in March.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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