US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for 

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI 

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Empire State Index for April (diffusion index)

 Monday, April 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Empire Index      8.0      5.0 to 11.5                 --    3.7    8.8

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to rise to a reading 

of 8.0 in April after dipping to 3.7 in March.

Industrial Production for March (percent change)

 Tuesday, April 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Ind Prod      +0.2%     -0.2% to +0.4%                 --   Flat  -0.1% 

 Cap Util      79.2%     78.2% to 79.4%                 --  79.1%  79.2%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in March 

after a flat reading in February. Factory payrolls fell by 6,000 

in March, with auto production jobs also down 6,000 and the factory 

workweek was unchanged at 40.7 hours. The ISM production index rose to 

55.8 in the current month from 54.8 in the previous month. Utilities 

production is expected to decline in the month after a 3.7% rise in 

February, when weather became more seasonably cooler. Mining production 

is forecast to rise further. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 

79.2% after falling slightly to 79.1% in February. 

Trade in Goods and Services for February (deficit, billion $)           

 Wednesday, April 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                Feb19   Jan19   Dec18

 Trade Gap    -$53.5b  -$55.0b to -$50.0b             -- -$51.1b -$59.9b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $53.5 

billion in February after sharp movements in the previous two months. 

With no advance data available for February, there is a greater 

possibility of headline surprise.

Weekly Jobless Claims for April 13 week                                

 Thursday, April 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Apr13  Apr06  Mar30

 Weekly Claims  206k      195k to 218k                  --   196k   204k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 10,000 to 206,000 in the April 13 employment survey week after a 

decrease of 8,000 to 196,000 in the previous week, a 50-year low. The 

four-week moving average would fall by 2,500 this week as the 216,000 

level in the March 16 employment survey week rolls out of the 

calculation. The timing of spring breaks varies from year to year, 

making seasonal adjustment difficult and leaving open the possibility of 

a surprise. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for April (diffusion index)

 Thursday, April 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Phila Fed        11.0      8.0 to 16.4                 --   13.7   -4.1

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to decline to a 

reading of 11.0 in April after rebounding sharply to 13.7 in March.

Retail and Food Sales for March (percent change)                      

 Thursday, April 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:

               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Retail Sales   +1.0%    +0.3% to +1.3%                 --  -0.2%  +0.7%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.8%    +0.1% to +1.0%                 --  -0.4%  +1.4%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 1.0% in March after a 

0.2% decline in February. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle 

sales were up sharply in March, while AAA reported that gasoline prices 

rose solidly in mid-March from one month earlier. Retail sales are 

expected to rise 0.8% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.4% decline in 

February. 

Business Inventories for February (percent change)                      

 Thursday, April 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

              Median           Range                 Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Inventories   +0.3%       Flat to +0.5%                --  +0.8%  +0.8%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% in 

February. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.3% in the 

month. There was no advance reading for retail and wholesale 

inventories. As for sales, factory shipments rose by 0.4% and advance 

retail trade sales fell 0.2%. 

Leading Indicators for March (percent change)

 Thursday, April 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                 Median         Range                Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Leading Index   +0.4%     +0.1% to +0.6%               --  +0.2%   Flat

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 

0.4% in March after a 0.2% increase in February. Positive contributions 

are expected from lower jobless claims and rising stock prices, 

offsetting negative contributions from a decline in consumer 

expectations. 

Housing Starts for March (annual rate, million) 

 Friday, April 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Starts    1.230m      1.160m to 1.270m                 -- 1.162m 1.273m 

     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to rise to a 1.230 

million pace in March after falling sharply in February. Unadjusted 

starts were down 9.4% from a year earlier in February, a further sign 

that home building has stagnated.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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