US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

     Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for April (mln units, saar)                  

 Wednesday, May 1                                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.7m   7.1m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales excluding GM and 

Ford is expected to slow modestly in April after rebounding sharp in 

March. Seasonal factors will be an addition to unadjusted claims after 

subtracting from them in March, so another upside surprise is possible. 

     Construction Spending for March (percent change)                        

 Wednesday, May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:

               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Construction  +0.2%     -1.3% to +0.3%                 --  +1.0%  +2.5%

     Comments: The value of construction spending is expected to rise by 

only 0.2% in March after a 1.0% gain in February, which was led by 

private residential construction and public construction. Housing starts 

fell by 0.3% in the month, suggesting new residential construction 

slipped further. Home remodeling has been the saving grace of 

residential construction in recent months. 

     ISM Manufacturing Index for April                                       

 Wednesday, May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:

               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Mfg ISM        55.3      54.7 to 56.2                  --   55.3   54.2

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to be unchanged 

from the reading of 55.3 in March. Regional conditions data have been 

generally to the downside. 

     Weekly Jobless Claims for April 27 week                                

 Thursday, May 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Apr27  Apr20  Apr13

 Weekly Claims  209k      195k to 215k                  --   230k   193k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 21,000 to 209,000 in the April 27 week after a surprise rebound of 

37,000 to 230,000 in the previous week that broke a string of declines. 

The movements in recent weeks were likely due to seasonal adjustment 

difficulties around spring break. The four-week moving average would 

rise by 1,200 this week as the 204,000 level in the March 30 survey week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 

 Thursday, May 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                   Median           Range          1Q19p    4Q18    3Q18

 Productivity       +1.8%      +0.5% to +2.6%         --   +1.9%   +1.8% 

 Unit Labor Costs   +1.8%      -0.1% to +3.0%         --   +2.0%   +1.6%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 1.8% in the 

first quarter after a 1.9% gain in the previous quarter, though a solid 

gain in output component is an upside risk. Unit labor costs are 

expected to rise by 1.8% in first quarter, moderately the 2.0% gain 

reported for the fourth quarter. 

     Factory Orders for March (percent change)                             

 Thursday, May 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 New Orders     +1.5%    +0.3% to +1.9%                 --  -0.5%   Flat

 Ex Transport                                           --  +0.3%  -0.1%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.5% in March 

after a 0.5% decline in February. Durable goods orders were already 

reported as up 2.7% on a large aircraft rebound, while nondurable orders 

are expected to rise on a further gain in energy prices. Factory orders 

ex. transportation are expected to post a modest gain, as suggested by a 

0.4% increase in durable goods orders excluding transportation. 

     Nonfarm Payrolls for April (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Payrolls       +190k    +165k to +250k                 --  +196k   +33k

 Private Jobs   +185k    +165k to +220k                 --  +182k   +28k

 Jobless Rate    3.8%     3.7% to  3.8%                 --   3.8%   3.8%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.1%  +0.4%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to  34.5                 --   34.5  

34.4Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in April 

after a stronger-than-expected 196,000 increase in March. The 

unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8% for another month. 

Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is 

expected to stay at 34.5 hours. 

     ISM Non-manufacturing Index for April

 Friday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                          Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 ISM NMI        57.3      56.0 to 58.5                  --   56.1   59.7

     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to rebound 

to a reading of 57.3 in April after falling to 56.1 in March. The 

Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing index declined slightly to 21.0 while 

the flash Markit Services index fell to 52.9.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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