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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Apr 30/17:06 EST Apr 30
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
     Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for April (mln units, saar)                  
 Wednesday, May 1                                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.7m   7.1m
     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales excluding GM and 
Ford is expected to slow modestly in April after rebounding sharp in 
March. Seasonal factors will be an addition to unadjusted claims after 
subtracting from them in March, so another upside surprise is possible. 
     Construction Spending for March (percent change)                        
 Wednesday, May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:
               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 Construction  +0.2%     -1.3% to +0.3%                 --  +1.0%  +2.5%
     Comments: The value of construction spending is expected to rise by 
only 0.2% in March after a 1.0% gain in February, which was led by 
private residential construction and public construction. Housing starts 
fell by 0.3% in the month, suggesting new residential construction 
slipped further. Home remodeling has been the saving grace of 
residential construction in recent months. 
     ISM Manufacturing Index for April                                       
 Wednesday, May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:
               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 Mfg ISM        55.3      54.7 to 56.2                  --   55.3   54.2
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to be unchanged 
from the reading of 55.3 in March. Regional conditions data have been 
generally to the downside. 
     Weekly Jobless Claims for April 27 week                                
 Thursday, May 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Apr27  Apr20  Apr13
 Weekly Claims  209k      195k to 215k                  --   230k   193k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 
by 21,000 to 209,000 in the April 27 week after a surprise rebound of 
37,000 to 230,000 in the previous week that broke a string of declines. 
The movements in recent weeks were likely due to seasonal adjustment 
difficulties around spring break. The four-week moving average would 
rise by 1,200 this week as the 204,000 level in the March 30 survey week 
rolls out of the calculation. 
     Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 
 Thursday, May 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
                   Median           Range          1Q19p    4Q18    3Q18
 Productivity       +1.8%      +0.5% to +2.6%         --   +1.9%   +1.8% 
 Unit Labor Costs   +1.8%      -0.1% to +3.0%         --   +2.0%   +1.6%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 1.8% in the 
first quarter after a 1.9% gain in the previous quarter, though a solid 
gain in output component is an upside risk. Unit labor costs are 
expected to rise by 1.8% in first quarter, moderately the 2.0% gain 
reported for the fourth quarter. 
     Factory Orders for March (percent change)                             
 Thursday, May 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 New Orders     +1.5%    +0.3% to +1.9%                 --  -0.5%   Flat
 Ex Transport                                           --  +0.3%  -0.1%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.5% in March 
after a 0.5% decline in February. Durable goods orders were already 
reported as up 2.7% on a large aircraft rebound, while nondurable orders 
are expected to rise on a further gain in energy prices. Factory orders 
ex. transportation are expected to post a modest gain, as suggested by a 
0.4% increase in durable goods orders excluding transportation. 
     Nonfarm Payrolls for April (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 Payrolls       +190k    +165k to +250k                 --  +196k   +33k
 Private Jobs   +185k    +165k to +220k                 --  +182k   +28k
 Jobless Rate    3.8%     3.7% to  3.8%                 --   3.8%   3.8%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.1%  +0.4%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to  34.5                 --   34.5  
34.4Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in April 
after a stronger-than-expected 196,000 increase in March. The 
unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8% for another month. 
Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is 
expected to stay at 34.5 hours. 
     ISM Non-manufacturing Index for April
 Friday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                          Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 ISM NMI        57.3      56.0 to 58.5                  --   56.1   59.7
     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to rebound 
to a reading of 57.3 in April after falling to 56.1 in March. The 
Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing index declined slightly to 21.0 while 
the flash Markit Services index fell to 52.9.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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