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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 29/17:06 EST May 29
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Weekly Jobless Claims for May 25 week                                
 Thursday, May 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
               Median         Range                  May25  May18  May11
 Weekly Claims   212k     205k to 219k                  --   211k   212k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 
rebound by 1,000 to 212,000 in the May 25 week after falling by 1,000 to 
211,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 
4,500 this week as the 230,000 level in the April 27 week rolls out of 
the calculation. The shorter reporting period due to the Monday holiday 
may lead to a number of estimated state data. 
GDP for First Quarter (second estimate)
 Thursday, May 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  1Q19s  1Q19a   4Q18
 GDP            +3.1%    +2.9% to +3.2%                 --  +3.2%  +2.2% 
 Chain Prices   +0.9%    +0.9% to +0.9%                 --  +0.9%  +1.7%
     Comments: Analysts expect GDP to be revised down very slightly to a 
3.1% pace in second estimate for the first quarter, with minor 
offsetting adjustments to the components. The chain price index is 
expected to be unrevised at 0.9%. Early expectations for the second 
quarter appear to be softer, based on the April consumption and 
manufacturing data release so far, though the home building data were 
relatively strong. 
Personal Income for April (percent change)                          
 Friday, May 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2% 
 Spending       +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.4%                 --  +0.9%  +0.1%
 Core Prices    +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%                 --   Flat  +0.1%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in April, as 
payrolls and hours worked rose by 263,000, while hourly earnings rose 
0.2%. PCE for April is expected to be up only 0.2%, based on the much 
softer retail sales data for the month, after rising by 0.9% in the 
March. Core PCE prices are expected to rise 0.2% in April, which should 
keep the year/year rate at 1.6%, depending on rounding. Core PCE prices 
rose by 0.2% in April 2018. 
MNI Chicago Report for May (index)                                 
 Friday, May 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                          Actual:        
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 MNI Chicago     53.8     51.0 to 56.4                  --   52.6   58.7
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to partially rebound to a 
reading of 53.9 in May after a further dip to 52.6 in April. Other 
regional data already released have been mixed, with the Empire and 
Philadelphia measures up, but the Kansas City reading down. 
University of Michigan Survey for May (final)          
 Friday, May 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:
                Median        Range                  May19f May19p Apr19
 Consumer Sent   102.0   100.9 to 102.4                  --  102.4  97.2
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised 
down to a reading of 102.0 in May after jumping to 102.4 in the 
preliminary estimate. The data suggest no real concern about the 
US-China trade negotiations.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email:

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