US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Producer Price Index for May (percent change)

 Tuesday, June 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                 Median         Range                May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Final Demand    +0.1%      Flat to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  +0.6% 

 Ex Food,Energy  +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%               --  +0.1%  +0.3%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise by only 0.1% in May 

after a modest 0.2% April increase. Energy prices are expected to hold 

steady following gains in the previous three months, while food prices 

are expected to rebound modestly after a 0.2% decline. Excluding food 

and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after a 

weaker-than-expected 0.1% April gain, but impacts from the tariffs are 

not expected to show up in the data until next month. 

Consumer Price Index for May (percent change)                       

 Wednesday, June 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median         Range                   May19  Apr19  Mar19

 CPI          +0.1%     +0.1% to +0.2%                  --  +0.3%  +0.4% 

 CPI Core     +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                  --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in May after a 0.3% 

gain in the previous month. Gasoline prices are expected to be little 

changed, with some upside risk suggested by the monthly AAA data. Food 

prices are expected to rebound after posting a 0.1% decline in April. 

The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a string of 0.1% gains. 

Apparel prices should rebound after declines in the previous two months 

on technical factors. 

Treasury Statement for May ($ billions)                           

 Wednesday, June 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

             Median           Range              May19    Apr19    May18

 Balance    -$198.0b  -$198.0b to -$198.0b          -- +$160.3b -$146.8b

     Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $198.0 billion budget 

gap in May, compared with the $146.8 billion gap in May 2018. June 1 was 

a Saturday this year, so some transfer payments moved into May, boosting 

outlays. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 8 week                                

 Thursday, June 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jun08  Jun01  May25

 Weekly Claims   215k     215k to 221k                  --   218k   218k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 3,000 to 215,000 in the June 8 week after holding steady at 218,000 

in the previous week. The four-week moving average would still rise by 

750 this week as the 212,000 level in the May 11 week rolls out of the 

calculation. 

Retail and Food Sales for May (percent change)                      

 Friday, June 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Retail Sales  +0.8%     -0.2% to +1.0%                 --  -0.2%  +1.7%

 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.4%     +0.1% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  +1.3%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rebound by 0.8% in May after 

a 0.2% decline in April. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle 

sales improved sharply in May. AAA reported that gasoline prices rose 

further in mid-May from one month earlier, but seasonal factors will 

likely offset that gain as the summer driving season started. Retail 

sales are expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.1% 

increase in April, but after gas, vehicles, and building materials are 

cut out, the control group should show little gain. 

Industrial Production for May (percent change)

 Friday, June 14 at 9:45 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median          Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Ind Prod     +0.2%      -0.5% to +0.5%                 --  -0.5%  +0.2% 

 Cap Util      78.0       77.8 to 78.1                  --  77.9%  78.5%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2% in May 

after a 0.5% decrease in March. Factory payrolls rose by 3,000 in May, 

as did auto production jobs, while the factory workweek was unchanged at 

40.6 hours. The ISM production index fell to 51.3 in the current month 

from 52.3 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to 

rebound in the month after a 3.5% decrease in April, led by increased 

utilities production. Mining production is forecast to decline after a 

1.6% rebound in the previous month. Capacity utilization is forecast to 

rise to 78.0% after falling to 77.9% in April. 

Business Inventories for April (percent change)                      

 Friday, June 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

              Median           Range                 Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Inventories  +0.4%       -0.1% to +0.5%                --   Flat  +0.3%

     Comments: The value of business inventories is expected to rise by 

0.4% in April, slightly behind an MNI calculation for a 0.5% increase 

after the wholesale data. Factory inventories were up 0.3% in the month, 

while wholesale inventories rose 0.8% and the advance reading for retail 

inventories was a 0.5% gain. As for sales, factory shipments fell 0.5%, 

wholesale sales fell by 0.4%, and the advance estimate of retail trade 

sales was a 0.2% decline, adding up to a 0.4% decline for business sales 

before any retail sales revision. 

University of Michigan Survey for June (preliminary)          

 Friday, June 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:

                Median        Range                  Jun19p  May19 Apr19

 Consumer Sent  100.0     95.5 to 100.0                  --  100.0  97.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to stay at a 

reading of 100.0 in June after rising to that point in May.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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