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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 23/17:06 EST Jul 23
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.                                                       
New Home Sales for June (annual rate)                                   
 Wednesday, July 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 New Homes       660k     582k to 686k                  --   626k   679k
     Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to partially      
rebound to a 660,000 SAAR in June after dipping to 626,000 in May. Home 
sales were below their year-ago level in May.                           
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 20 week                                  
 Thursday, July 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul20  Jul13  Jul06
 Weekly Claims   220k     210k to 222k                  --   216k   208k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 4,000 to 220,000 in the July 20 week after a partial rebound to      
216,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would decline
further this week as the 229,000 level in the June 22 week rolls out of 
the calculation.                                                        
Durable Goods Orders for June (percent change)                          
 Thursday, July 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 New Orders     +0.8%    -1.5% to +1.5%                 --  -1.3%  -2.8%
 Ex-Transport   +0.2%    -0.1% to +0.7%                 --  +0.3%  -0.1%
     Comments: The pace of durable goods orders is expected to rise by  
0.8% in May after falling in the previous two months on continued       
declines for aircraft. Boeing still only reported nine new orders in    
June, only slightly ahead of the report of no new orders in May.        
Cancellations remain a factor too, so the transportation component      
should remain a drag on the headline number going forward despite a     
modest June uptick. Orders are expected to rise by 0.2% outside of the  
transportation component.                                               
GDP for Second Quarter (advance estimate)                               
 Friday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:         
               Median         Range                  2Q19a   1Q19   4Q18
 GDP            +1.8%    +1.2% to +2.8%                 --  +3.1%  +2.2%
 Chain Prices   +1.9%    +1.4% to +2.3%                 --  +0.9%  +1.7%
     Comments: Analysts see a 1.8% increase for second quarter GDP in   
the advance estimate, much slower than the 3.1% gain in the first       
quarter. The key factors are expected to be a wider trade gap and slower
inventory build, with fixed investment roughly flat. The PCE component, 
however is expected to show significant acceleration after a softer     
first quarter. The chain price index is expected to rise by 1.9% in the 
second quarter after a 0.9% gain in the previous quarter. Annual        
revisions will be released with this week's data.                       
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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