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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 23/17:06 EST Jul 23
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
New Home Sales for June (annual rate)
Wednesday, July 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19
New Homes 660k 582k to 686k -- 626k 679k
Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to partially
rebound to a 660,000 SAAR in June after dipping to 626,000 in May. Home
sales were below their year-ago level in May.
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 20 week
Thursday, July 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul20 Jul13 Jul06
Weekly Claims 220k 210k to 222k -- 216k 208k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 4,000 to 220,000 in the July 20 week after a partial rebound to
216,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would decline
further this week as the 229,000 level in the June 22 week rolls out of
the calculation.
Durable Goods Orders for June (percent change)
Thursday, July 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19
New Orders +0.8% -1.5% to +1.5% -- -1.3% -2.8%
Ex-Transport +0.2% -0.1% to +0.7% -- +0.3% -0.1%
Comments: The pace of durable goods orders is expected to rise by
0.8% in May after falling in the previous two months on continued
declines for aircraft. Boeing still only reported nine new orders in
June, only slightly ahead of the report of no new orders in May.
Cancellations remain a factor too, so the transportation component
should remain a drag on the headline number going forward despite a
modest June uptick. Orders are expected to rise by 0.2% outside of the
transportation component.
GDP for Second Quarter (advance estimate)
Friday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 2Q19a 1Q19 4Q18
GDP +1.8% +1.2% to +2.8% -- +3.1% +2.2%
Chain Prices +1.9% +1.4% to +2.3% -- +0.9% +1.7%
Comments: Analysts see a 1.8% increase for second quarter GDP in
the advance estimate, much slower than the 3.1% gain in the first
quarter. The key factors are expected to be a wider trade gap and slower
inventory build, with fixed investment roughly flat. The PCE component,
however is expected to show significant acceleration after a softer
first quarter. The chain price index is expected to rise by 1.9% in the
second quarter after a 0.9% gain in the previous quarter. Annual
revisions will be released with this week's data.
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.