US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of market expectations 

for upcoming U.S. economic indicators. 

     Trade Balance (billions)                          

 Wednesday, September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:     

              Median                                 Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Balance       -53.4                                  --    -55.2  -55.3

     Comments: The trade deficit may narrow a tad, with analysts 

anticipating a -53.4 billion gap in July. Global trade conditions are 

uncertain but appear resilient in the face of continued tariffs.  

          ADP Payrolls (thousands)

 Thursday, September 5 at 8:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median                               Aug19 Jul19  Jun19

 Payrolls         150                                   --    156    112

          Jobless Claims (thousands)

 Thursday, September 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median                                Aug31   Aug24  Aug17  

 Claims          215                                   --     211    222

               Comments: Jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 215k.

Continued low levels of claims suggest solid employment growth in August. 

          Nonfarm Productivity (percent change)

 Thursday, September 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median                                 Q219a  Q219p  Q119a

Productivity    +2.2%                                 --   +2.3%   +3.5%

Labor Costs     +2.5%                                 --   +2.4%   +5.5%

           Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised down from 

a preliminary 2.3%, while labor costs are expected to move higher to 2.5% 

from 2.4%.

          New Factory Orders (percent)

 Thursday, September 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median                                July19  Jun19  May19

Orders         +1.0%                                 --     +0.6%  -1.3%

ex. trans       N/A                                  --     +0.1%  +0.0%

          ISM Non-Manufacturing (index)

 Thursday, September 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median                                 Aug19  July19 Jun19    

Non-Mfg        54.0                                   --      53.7  55.1 

          Comments: Non-manufacturing ISM is anticipated to increase by 0.3 

pp in August on the strength of the consumer. Analysts expect some 

downside risks in future months. 

          Nonfarm Payrolls 

Friday, September 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                              Median                Aug19   July19 Jun19  

 Payrolls                     168k                    --     164k   193k

 Unemp. Rate                   3.7%                   --     3.7%   3.7% 

 Hourly Earnings              +0.3%                   --    +0.3%  +0.3% 

 Workweek Hours               34.4                    --     34.4   34.4  

             Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are expected to remain steady at 168k 

for August. That should help stabilize the unemployment rate at 3.7%, 

despite slowdowns in the manufacturing sector. Hourly earnings are 

projected to increase by 0.3% again, and workweek hours to stay at 34.4. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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