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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of market expectations 
for upcoming U.S. economic indicators. 
     Trade Balance (billions)                          
 Wednesday, September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:     
              Median                                 Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Balance       -53.4                                  --    -55.2  -55.3
     Comments: The trade deficit may narrow a tad, with analysts 
anticipating a -53.4 billion gap in July. Global trade conditions are 
uncertain but appear resilient in the face of continued tariffs.  
          ADP Payrolls (thousands)
 Thursday, September 5 at 8:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median                               Aug19 Jul19  Jun19
 Payrolls         150                                   --    156    112
          Jobless Claims (thousands)
 Thursday, September 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median                                Aug31   Aug24  Aug17  
 Claims          215                                   --     211    222
               Comments: Jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 215k.
Continued low levels of claims suggest solid employment growth in August. 
          Nonfarm Productivity (percent change)
 Thursday, September 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median                                 Q219a  Q219p  Q119a
Productivity    +2.2%                                 --   +2.3%   +3.5%
Labor Costs     +2.5%                                 --   +2.4%   +5.5%
           Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised down from 
a preliminary 2.3%, while labor costs are expected to move higher to 2.5% 
from 2.4%.
          New Factory Orders (percent)
 Thursday, September 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median                                July19  Jun19  May19
Orders         +1.0%                                 --     +0.6%  -1.3%
ex. trans       N/A                                  --     +0.1%  +0.0%
          ISM Non-Manufacturing (index)
 Thursday, September 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median                                 Aug19  July19 Jun19    
Non-Mfg        54.0                                   --      53.7  55.1 
          Comments: Non-manufacturing ISM is anticipated to increase by 0.3 
pp in August on the strength of the consumer. Analysts expect some 
downside risks in future months. 
          Nonfarm Payrolls 
Friday, September 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
                              Median                Aug19   July19 Jun19  
 Payrolls                     168k                    --     164k   193k
 Unemp. Rate                   3.7%                   --     3.7%   3.7% 
 Hourly Earnings              +0.3%                   --    +0.3%  +0.3% 
 Workweek Hours               34.4                    --     34.4   34.4  
             Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are expected to remain steady at 168k 
for August. That should help stabilize the unemployment rate at 3.7%, 
despite slowdowns in the manufacturing sector. Hourly earnings are 
projected to increase by 0.3% again, and workweek hours to stay at 34.4. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

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