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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 31/16:06 EST Oct 31
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts. 
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for October (mln units, saar)              
 Wednesday, November 1                                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 Dom Sales      13.7m    13.7m to 13.7m                 --  14.2m  12.3m
     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to decline to   
13.7m in October after a sharp September rebound. Seasonal adjustment   
factors will add even more substantially to unadjusted sales in October 
than they did in September, but the payback in unadjusted sales will    
likely offset any help that the seasonal factors provide.               
ISM Manufacturing Index for October                                     
 Wednesday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
              Median       Range                     Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 Mfg ISM        59.5    58.0 to 61.0                    --   60.8   58.8
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a     
reading of 59.5 in October after rising to a recent peak of 60.8 in     
September despite the hurricanes that month. Regional conditions have   
suggested stronger growth                                               
Construction Spending for September (percent change)                    
 Wednesday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
                Median         Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Construction     Flat      -0.6% to +0.5%              --  +0.5%  -1.2%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to hold steady in      
September, though the hurricanes present a short-term downside risk.    
Housing starts fell 4.7% in the month, suggesting private residential   
building could be weak.                                                 
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 28 week                               
 Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                  Median         Range               Oct28  Oct21  Oct14
 Weekly Claims      235k      230k to 240k              --   233k   223k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 2,000 to 235,000 in the October 28 week after a 10,000 increase in   
the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 5,750 in  
the coming week as the 258,000 level in the September 30 week, the last 
of the true hurricane-impacted weeks, drops out of the calculation,     
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        
Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 
 Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                   Median         Range              3Q17p   2Q17   1Q17
 Productivity       +2.9%    +1.6% to +3.5%             --  +1.5%  +0.1%
 Unit Labor Costs   +0.6%     Flat to +2.5%             --  +0.2%  +4.8%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 2.9% in the     
third quarter after a 1.5% gain in the previous quarter, as output      
growth was close to steady, but hours worked growth slowed. Unit labor  
costs are expected to rise by 0.6% following a modest 0.2% gain in the  
second quarter.                                                         
Nonfarm Payrolls for October (change in thousands)                      
 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 Payrolls       315k       +200k to +350k               --   -33k  +169k
 Private Job    311k       +195k to +340k               --   -40k  +164k
 Jobless Rate   4.2%        4.2% to 4.4%                --   4.2%   4.4%
 Hrly Earnings +0.2%        Flat to +0.3%               --  +0.5%  +0.2%
 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.4        34.4 to 34.5                --   34.4   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 315,000 in      
October after September's hurricane-impacted 33,000 decline, while the  
unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Hourly earnings   
are forecast to rise by only 0.2% after a 0.5% surge in the previous    
month, but the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 hours for   
the fourth straight month.                                              
Trade in Goods and Services for September (deficit, billion $)          
 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
              Median           Range               Sep17   Aug17   Jul17
 Trade Gap   -$43.5b      -$44.0b to -$43.0b          -- -$42.4b -$43.6b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $43.5
billion in September. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap
widened to $64.1 billion, with exports up 0.7% and imports up 0.9%      
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for October                                 
 Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 ISM NMI        58.6    57.0 to 59.5                    --   59.8   55.3
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a  
reading of 58.6 in October after another increase to 59.8 in September. 
The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell slightly to 32.2, but      
remained strong, while the flash Markit services index ticked up to 55.9
in the month from 55.3 in September.                                    
Factory Orders for September (percent change)                           
 Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median           Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 New Orders    +1.2%        +1.0% to +2.3%              --  +1.2%  -3.3%
 Ex Transport                                           --  +0.4%  +0.5%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.2% in September.
Durable goods orders rose 2.2% in the month on a large gain in aircraft 
orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise further on        
hurricane-impacted energy prices. Factory orders are expected to post a 
smaller, but still solid, gain excluding the transportation component.  
Durable orders excluding transportation were rose 0.7% in the advance   
estimate.                                                               
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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