US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 31/16:06 EST Oct 31

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for October (mln units, saar)              

 Wednesday, November 1                                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Dom Sales      13.7m    13.7m to 13.7m                 --  14.2m  12.3m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to decline to   

13.7m in October after a sharp September rebound. Seasonal adjustment   

factors will add even more substantially to unadjusted sales in October 

than they did in September, but the payback in unadjusted sales will    

likely offset any help that the seasonal factors provide.               

ISM Manufacturing Index for October                                     

 Wednesday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median       Range                     Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Mfg ISM        59.5    58.0 to 61.0                    --   60.8   58.8

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a     

reading of 59.5 in October after rising to a recent peak of 60.8 in     

September despite the hurricanes that month. Regional conditions have   

suggested stronger growth                                               

Construction Spending for September (percent change)                    

 Wednesday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

                Median         Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Construction     Flat      -0.6% to +0.5%              --  +0.5%  -1.2%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to hold steady in      

September, though the hurricanes present a short-term downside risk.    

Housing starts fell 4.7% in the month, suggesting private residential   

building could be weak.                                                 

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 28 week                               

 Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                  Median         Range               Oct28  Oct21  Oct14

 Weekly Claims      235k      230k to 240k              --   233k   223k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 2,000 to 235,000 in the October 28 week after a 10,000 increase in   

the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 5,750 in  

the coming week as the 258,000 level in the September 30 week, the last 

of the true hurricane-impacted weeks, drops out of the calculation,     

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        

Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 

 Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                   Median         Range              3Q17p   2Q17   1Q17

 Productivity       +2.9%    +1.6% to +3.5%             --  +1.5%  +0.1%

 Unit Labor Costs   +0.6%     Flat to +2.5%             --  +0.2%  +4.8%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 2.9% in the     

third quarter after a 1.5% gain in the previous quarter, as output      

growth was close to steady, but hours worked growth slowed. Unit labor  

costs are expected to rise by 0.6% following a modest 0.2% gain in the  

second quarter.                                                         

Nonfarm Payrolls for October (change in thousands)                      

 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Payrolls       315k       +200k to +350k               --   -33k  +169k

 Private Job    311k       +195k to +340k               --   -40k  +164k

 Jobless Rate   4.2%        4.2% to 4.4%                --   4.2%   4.4%

 Hrly Earnings +0.2%        Flat to +0.3%               --  +0.5%  +0.2%

 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.4        34.4 to 34.5                --   34.4   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 315,000 in      

October after September's hurricane-impacted 33,000 decline, while the  

unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Hourly earnings   

are forecast to rise by only 0.2% after a 0.5% surge in the previous    

month, but the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 hours for   

the fourth straight month.                                              

Trade in Goods and Services for September (deficit, billion $)          

 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median           Range               Sep17   Aug17   Jul17

 Trade Gap   -$43.5b      -$44.0b to -$43.0b          -- -$42.4b -$43.6b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $43.5

billion in September. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap

widened to $64.1 billion, with exports up 0.7% and imports up 0.9%      

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for October                                 

 Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 ISM NMI        58.6    57.0 to 59.5                    --   59.8   55.3

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a  

reading of 58.6 in October after another increase to 59.8 in September. 

The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell slightly to 32.2, but      

remained strong, while the flash Markit services index ticked up to 55.9

in the month from 55.3 in September.                                    

Factory Orders for September (percent change)                           

 Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 New Orders    +1.2%        +1.0% to +2.3%              --  +1.2%  -3.3%

 Ex Transport                                           --  +0.4%  +0.5%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.2% in September.

Durable goods orders rose 2.2% in the month on a large gain in aircraft 

orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise further on        

hurricane-impacted energy prices. Factory orders are expected to post a 

smaller, but still solid, gain excluding the transportation component.  

Durable orders excluding transportation were rose 0.7% in the advance   

estimate.                                                               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com