US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Nov 27/15:06 EST Nov 27

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for November (index)               

 Tuesday, November 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Confidence     124.0      120.0 to 126.3               --  125.9  120.6

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to decline  

to a reading of 124.0 in November after a sharp gain to 125.9 in        

October. The Michigan Sentiment Index slipped to 98.5 in November from  

100.7 in the previous month.                                            

GDP for Third Quarter (second estimate)                                 

 Wednesday, November 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                   3Q17s  3Q17a  2Q17

 GDP            +3.4%      +3.0% to +3.5%               --  +3.0%  +3.1%

 Chain Prices   +2.2%      +2.2% to +2.2%               --  +2.2%  +1.0%

     Comments: Third quarter GDP is expected to be revised up to 3.4%   

rate of growth from the 3.0% preliminary estimate, with the key factor  

being stronger PCE growth than in the advance estimate. The chain price 

index is expected to be unrevised at a 2.2% pace of growth.             

Weekly Jobless Claims for November 25 week                              

 Thursday, November 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov25  Nov18  Nov11

 Weekly Claims   240k      239k to 245k                 --   239k   252k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to tick  

up to 240,000 in the November 25 holiday week after a 13,000 decrease in

the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by 2,750 in  

the coming week as the 229,000 level in the October 28 week drops out of

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no  

revisions.                                                              

Personal Income for October (percent change)                            

 Thursday, November 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Income         +0.3%      +0.1% to +0.4%               --  +0.4%  +0.2%

 Spending       +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.4%               --  +1.0%  +0.1%

 Core Prices    +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.2%               --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in October,  

as payrolls surged by 261,000, average weekly hours held steady at 34.4 

hours, and hourly were flat. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise     

0.3%, as retail sales rose 0.2% in the month and were still up 0.1%     

excluding a 0.7% gain in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales (also   

ex. gas) were rose 0.3% in the month, while sales excluding autos, gas, 

building materials and food services rose 0.3%, indicating underlying   

strength. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% gain in   

October following a string of 0.1% gains but the year/year rate should  

remain well below the 2% threshold.                                     

MNI Chicago Report for November (index)                                 

 Thursday, November 30 at 9:45 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 MNI Chicago     63.5      61.0 to 66.5                 --   66.2   65.2

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to decline to a          

still-strong reading of 63.5 in November after rising further to 66.2 in

October. Other regional data already released, however, suggest that    

growth slowed in those areas.                                           

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for November (mln units, saar)             

 Friday, December 1                                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Dom Sales      13.8m     13.6m to 14.0m                --  13.8m  14.2m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to hold steady  

at 13.8 million annual rate in November after slowing in October.       

Seasonal adjustment factors are less accommodative in November than they

were in October.                                                        

ISM Manufacturing Index for November                                    

 Friday, December 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                   Nov17  Oct17 Sep17

 Mfg ISM         58.0      57.0 to 58.5                  --   58.7  60.8

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall further  

to a reading of 58.0 in November after dipping to 58.7 in October.      

Regional conditions data have suggested growth slowed in the month.     

Construction Spending for October (percent change)                      

 Friday, December 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Construction   +0.5%      +0.2% to +1.0%               --  +0.3%  +0.1%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.5% in     

October. Housing starts surged by 13.7% in the month, suggesting private

residential building could rise sharply.                                

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com