US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 15/15:06 EST Dec 15

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Housing Starts for November (annual rate, million)                      

 Tuesday, December 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Starts    1.252m       1.200m to 1.337m                -- 1.290m 1.135m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to slow to a 1.252 million annual rate in November after a     

sharp increase in October. The NAHB index rose further in November, a   

positive for the housing starts data.                                   

Existing-home Sales for November (annual rate)                          

 Wednesday, December 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Home Resales     5.51m     5.40m to 5.59m              --  5.48m  5.37m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to accelerate

further to a 5.51 million annual rate in November after a small uptick  

in October. Pending home sales surged in October, but were still down   

modestly from a year earlier. Supply fell by 3.2% in October and remains

sharply lower from a year earlier, an indication that the supply        

shortage continues.                                                     

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 16 week                              

 Thursday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Dec16  Dec09  Dec02

 Weekly Claims     233k     230k to 235k                --   225k   236k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 8,000 to 233,000 in the December 16 employment survey week   

after a decrease of 11,000 in the previous week that pulled down the    

four-week average by 6,750. Claims were at level of 240,000 in the      

November 18 employment survey week. The four-week moving average would  

fall by 1,750 in the coming week as that 240,000 level in the November  

18 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is      

correct and there are no revisions.                                     

GDP for Third Quarter (third estimate)                                  

 Thursday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                   3Q17t  3Q17s  2Q17

 GDP            +3.3%     +3.2% to +3.5%                 --  +3.3% +3.1%

 Chain Prices   +2.1%     +2.1% to +2.1%                 --  +2.1% +1.0%

     Comments: Third quarter GDP is expected to be revised unrevised at 

a 3.3% rate of growth, while the chain price index is expected to be    

unrevised at a 2.1% pace, suggesting analysts have changed their focus  

to the fourth quarter when growth is expected to be a bit stronger.     

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for December (diffusion index)       

 Thursday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

             Median         Range                    Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Phila Fed     21.8     20.0 to 24.7                    --   22.7   27.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall further to

a reading of 21.8 in December following a decline in November to 22.7.  

The Empire State index fell modestly to 18.0 from 19.4 in November      

Leading Indicators for November (percent change)                        

 Thursday, December 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:      

                 Median          Range               Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Leading Index    +0.4%      +0.2% to +0.4%             --  +1.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.4% in November. Positive contributions are expected from ISM new      

orders, stock prices, and consumer expectations.                        

Durable Goods Orders for November (percent change)                      

 Friday, December 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median        Range                   Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 New Orders     +2.0%    +1.2% to +4.0%                 --  -0.8%  +2.4%

 Ex-Transport   +0.5%    +0.4% to +1.1%                 --  +0.9%  +1.3%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rebound by 2.0% in  

November after a revised 0.8% decline in October. Boeing orders rose to 

159 from 64 in October, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise

sharply. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a more    

modest 0.5% gain after a 0.9% rise in October.                          

Personal Income for November (percent change)                           

 Friday, December 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Income         +0.4%     +0.4% to +0.5%                --  +0.4%  +0.4%

 Spending       +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.6%                --  +0.3%  +0.9%

 Core Prices    +0.1%     +0.1% to +0.1%                --  +0.2%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in November, 

as payrolls increased by 228,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5     

hours, and hourly earnings were up 0.2%. Current dollar PCE is forecast 

to rise 0.4%, as retail sales surged by 0.8% in the month and were up   

1.0% excluding a 0.2% decline in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales 

(also ex. gas) were up 0.8% in the month, as were sales excluding autos,

gas, building materials and food services, indicating underlying        

underlying sales strength. The core PCE price index is expected to post 

a 0.1% increase in November following 0.2% gains in the previous two    

months, keeping the  year/year rate should remain well below the 2%     

threshold.                                                              

New Home Sales for November (annual rate)                               

 Friday, December 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 New Homes       660k      638k to 705k                 --   685k   645k

     Comments: New home sales are expected to slow to a 660,000 annual  

rate in November following sharp gains in the previous two months.      

Unadjusted sales were up 19.6% from a year earlier before seasonal      

adjustment. Home supply rose in October, though not enough to keep up   

with sales growth, so the months supply dipped to 4.9 months. Even so,  

there should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns.  

University of Michigan Survey for December (final)                      

 Friday, December 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

                Median           Range              Dec17f Dec17p  Nov17

 Consumer Sent    97.1       96.8 to 97.5               --   96.8   98.5

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up

to a reading of 97.1 in December from 96.8 in the preliminary estimate, 

but it would remain below the 98.5 reading in November.                 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com