US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.

Existing-home Sales for December (annual rate)                           

 Wednesday, January 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:

                 Median         Range                Dec17  Nov17  Oct17 

 Home Resales     5.70m      5.60m to 5.83m             --  5.81m  5.50m

          Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slip to a 

5.70 million annual rate in December after a sharp rise in November. 

Pending home sales was roughly unchanged in November, but were up from a 

year earlier. Supply fell by 7.2% in October and remains sharply lower 

from a year earlier, an indication that the supply shortage continues. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for January 20 week                               

 Thursday, January 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jan20  Jan13  Jan06

 Weekly Claims     241k      235k to 245k               --   220k   261k

          Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 

rebound by 21,000 to 241,000 in the January 20 week after a surprise 

41,000 decline in the previous week to a 45-year low level. The 

four-week moving average would slide by 1,500 in the coming week, as the 

247,000 level in the December 23 week drops out of the calculation, 

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

New Home Sales for December (annual rate)

 Thursday, January 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 New Homes       685k       635k to 752k                --   733k   624k

          Comments: New home sales are expected to fall to a 685,000 annual 

rate in December following a sharp increase in November. Unadjusted 

sales were up 30.0% from a year earlier. Home supply was flat in 

November, so the months supply dipped to 4.6 months. Even so, there 

should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns. 

Leading Indicators for December (percent change)

 Thursday, January 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median          Range               Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Leading Index    +0.5%      +0.3% to +0.5%             --  +0.4%  +1.2%

          Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 

0.5% in December. Positive contributions are expected from the ISM new 

orders index and a surge in stock prices. Softer consumer expectations 

will provide some offset. 

Durable Goods Orders for December (percent change)

 Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median        Range                   Dec17  Nov17  Oct17  

 New Orders     +0.9%      -1.5% to +3.4%               --  +1.3%  -0.4% 

 Ex-Transport   +0.6%      -0.2% to +0.8%               --  -0.1%  +1.4%

          Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.9% in 

December after a 1.3% gain in November. Boeing orders surged to 265 from 

159 in November, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise even 

further. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a 0.6% 

increase after a 0.1% decline in November, showing underlying strength. 

GDP for Fourth Quarter (advance estimate)

 Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                   4Q17a   3Q17  2Q17

 GDP            +3.0%      +2.7% to +3.8%                --  +3.2% +3.1% 

 Chain Prices   +2.3%      +2.1% to +2.5%                --  +2.1% +1.0%

     Comments: The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP is expected to 

be rise by 3.0% after a 3.2% gain in the previous quarter, marking a 

third straight quarter above 3%. A large surge in PCE growth is expected 

to be the key factor, based on recent retail sales data. In addition, 

both residential and nonresidential fixed investment are expected post 

gains in the quarter, while inventory growth should post a small 

negative contribution. The chain price index is expected to accelerate 

to a 2.3% rate from 2.1% in the previous quarter. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com

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