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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Jan 19/15:06 EST Jan 19
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Existing-home Sales for December (annual rate)
Wednesday, January 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
Home Resales 5.70m 5.60m to 5.83m -- 5.81m 5.50m
Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slip to a
5.70 million annual rate in December after a sharp rise in November.
Pending home sales was roughly unchanged in November, but were up from a
year earlier. Supply fell by 7.2% in October and remains sharply lower
from a year earlier, an indication that the supply shortage continues.
Weekly Jobless Claims for January 20 week
Thursday, January 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan20 Jan13 Jan06
Weekly Claims 241k 235k to 245k -- 220k 261k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to
rebound by 21,000 to 241,000 in the January 20 week after a surprise
41,000 decline in the previous week to a 45-year low level. The
four-week moving average would slide by 1,500 in the coming week, as the
247,000 level in the December 23 week drops out of the calculation,
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
New Home Sales for December (annual rate)
Thursday, January 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
New Homes 685k 635k to 752k -- 733k 624k
Comments: New home sales are expected to fall to a 685,000 annual
rate in December following a sharp increase in November. Unadjusted
sales were up 30.0% from a year earlier. Home supply was flat in
November, so the months supply dipped to 4.6 months. Even so, there
should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns.
Leading Indicators for December (percent change)
Thursday, January 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
Leading Index +0.5% +0.3% to +0.5% -- +0.4% +1.2%
Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by
0.5% in December. Positive contributions are expected from the ISM new
orders index and a surge in stock prices. Softer consumer expectations
will provide some offset.
Durable Goods Orders for December (percent change)
Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
New Orders +0.9% -1.5% to +3.4% -- +1.3% -0.4%
Ex-Transport +0.6% -0.2% to +0.8% -- -0.1% +1.4%
Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.9% in
December after a 1.3% gain in November. Boeing orders surged to 265 from
159 in November, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise even
further. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a 0.6%
increase after a 0.1% decline in November, showing underlying strength.
GDP for Fourth Quarter (advance estimate)
Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 4Q17a 3Q17 2Q17
GDP +3.0% +2.7% to +3.8% -- +3.2% +3.1%
Chain Prices +2.3% +2.1% to +2.5% -- +2.1% +1.0%
Comments: The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP is expected to
be rise by 3.0% after a 3.2% gain in the previous quarter, marking a
third straight quarter above 3%. A large surge in PCE growth is expected
to be the key factor, based on recent retail sales data. In addition,
both residential and nonresidential fixed investment are expected post
gains in the quarter, while inventory growth should post a small
negative contribution. The chain price index is expected to accelerate
to a 2.3% rate from 2.1% in the previous quarter.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.