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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Jan 19/15:06 EST Jan 19
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.
Existing-home Sales for December (annual rate)                           
 Wednesday, January 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:
                 Median         Range                Dec17  Nov17  Oct17 
 Home Resales     5.70m      5.60m to 5.83m             --  5.81m  5.50m
          Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slip to a 
5.70 million annual rate in December after a sharp rise in November. 
Pending home sales was roughly unchanged in November, but were up from a 
year earlier. Supply fell by 7.2% in October and remains sharply lower 
from a year earlier, an indication that the supply shortage continues. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for January 20 week                               
 Thursday, January 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Jan20  Jan13  Jan06
 Weekly Claims     241k      235k to 245k               --   220k   261k
          Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 
rebound by 21,000 to 241,000 in the January 20 week after a surprise 
41,000 decline in the previous week to a 45-year low level. The 
four-week moving average would slide by 1,500 in the coming week, as the 
247,000 level in the December 23 week drops out of the calculation, 
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 
New Home Sales for December (annual rate)
 Thursday, January 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17
 New Homes       685k       635k to 752k                --   733k   624k
          Comments: New home sales are expected to fall to a 685,000 annual 
rate in December following a sharp increase in November. Unadjusted 
sales were up 30.0% from a year earlier. Home supply was flat in 
November, so the months supply dipped to 4.6 months. Even so, there 
should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns. 
Leading Indicators for December (percent change)
 Thursday, January 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                 Median          Range               Dec17  Nov17  Oct17
 Leading Index    +0.5%      +0.3% to +0.5%             --  +0.4%  +1.2%
          Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 
0.5% in December. Positive contributions are expected from the ISM new 
orders index and a surge in stock prices. Softer consumer expectations 
will provide some offset. 
Durable Goods Orders for December (percent change)
 Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median        Range                   Dec17  Nov17  Oct17  
 New Orders     +0.9%      -1.5% to +3.4%               --  +1.3%  -0.4% 
 Ex-Transport   +0.6%      -0.2% to +0.8%               --  -0.1%  +1.4%
          Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.9% in 
December after a 1.3% gain in November. Boeing orders surged to 265 from 
159 in November, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise even 
further. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a 0.6% 
increase after a 0.1% decline in November, showing underlying strength. 
GDP for Fourth Quarter (advance estimate)
 Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                   4Q17a   3Q17  2Q17
 GDP            +3.0%      +2.7% to +3.8%                --  +3.2% +3.1% 
 Chain Prices   +2.3%      +2.1% to +2.5%                --  +2.1% +1.0%
     Comments: The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP is expected to 
be rise by 3.0% after a 3.2% gain in the previous quarter, marking a 
third straight quarter above 3%. A large surge in PCE growth is expected 
to be the key factor, based on recent retail sales data. In addition, 
both residential and nonresidential fixed investment are expected post 
gains in the quarter, while inventory growth should post a small 
negative contribution. The chain price index is expected to accelerate 
to a 2.3% rate from 2.1% in the previous quarter. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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