US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Feb 9/15:06 EST Feb 9

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.       

Treasury Statement for January ($ billions)                             

 Monday, February 12 at 2:00 p.m ET                     Actual:         

             Median           Range              Jan18    Dec17    Jan17

 Balance    +$53.5b     +$48.0b to +$59.0b          --  -$23.2b  +$51.3b

     Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $53.5 billion budget  

surplus, slightly wider than the $51.3 billion surplus a year earlier.  

The year/year comparison is valid due to identical calendar issues.     

Retail and Food Sales for January (percent change)                      

 Wednesday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Retail Sales   +0.2%     -0.2% to +0.4%                --  +0.4%  +0.9%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.5%      Flat to +0.8%                --  +0.4%  +1.3%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise only 0.2% in January   

after a string of solid gains. Seasonally adjusted industry motor       

vehicle sales slipped modestly in January, while AAA reported that      

gasoline prices rebounded in mid-January from one month earlier. Retail 

sales are expected to rise 0,5% excluding motor vehicles after          

December's 0.4% gain, while the control group is also expected to post a

solid gain to start the first quarter.                                  

Consumer Price Index for January (percent change)                       

 Wednesday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 CPI           +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.1%  +0.4%

 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.3%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.4% in January following a  

0.1% rise in December. Analysts expect energy prices to rebound after   

December's 1.2% decline, with gasoline prices leading the gain. AAA     

reported a slight increase in mid-month prices from December to January.

The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a stronger-than-expected

0.3% increase in December.                                              

Business Inventories for December (percent change)                      

 Wednesday, February 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Inventories   +0.3%       +0.1% to +0.4%               --  +0.4%   Flat

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.3% in        

December. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.5% in the   

month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.4%. The advance report showed 

a 0.2% gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation  

looks for a 0.4% increase for business inventories, so the median       

forecast suggests analysts see an upward revision to retail inventories.

As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.6%, wholesale sales rose 1.2% 

and the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.3% gain,        

suggesting a 0.7% gain for business sales.                              

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 10 week                              

 Thursday, February 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

                 Median        Range                 Feb10  Feb03  Jan27

 Weekly Claims     228k      225k to 230k               --   221k   230k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 7,000 to 228,000 in the February 10 week after a 9,000 decline in the

previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by 3,000 in the  

coming week, as the recent-low 216,000 level in the January 13 week     

drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions.                                                 

Producer Price Index for January (percent change)                       

 Thursday, February 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

                 Median         Range                Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Final Demand     +0.3%     +0.3% to +0.6%              --  -0.1%  +0.4%

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.5%              --  -0.1%  +0.3%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in January     

after a surprise 0.1% decline in December. Energy prices are expected to

rebound after a flat December reading, while food prices are expected to

rise modestly after 0.7% decline. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI 

is forecast to rise 0.2% after a below-expectation 0.1% decrease in the 

previous month that was led by a drop in trade services.                

Empire State Index for February (diffusion index)                       

 Thursday, February 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

                 Median        Range                 Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Empire Index      17.7     15.0 to 20.0                --   17.7   19.6

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to hold steady at     

a reading of 17.7.                                                      

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for February (diffusion index)       

 Thursday, February 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

             Median         Range                    Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Phila Fed     21.1      15.0 to 25.0                   --   22.2   27.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed reading is forecast to slip further 

to a reading of 21.1 after falling to 22.2 in the previous month.       

Industrial Production for January (percent change)                      

 Thursday, February 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Ind Prod      +0.2%     -0.3% to +0.6%                 --  +0.9%  -0.1%

 Cap Util      78.0%     70.0% to 78.4%                 --  77.9%  77.2%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise only 0.2% in   

January after a 0.9% spike in the previous month, even as manufacturing 

posted only a modest 0.1% December increase. Factory payrolls rose by   

15,000 in January, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000, but the    

factory workweek was slipped by 0.2 hours to 40.6 hours and will likely 

drag down manufacturing production. The ISM production index fell to a  

still strong 64.5 in the current month from 65.2 in the previous month. 

Utilities production is expected to decline in the month after a 5.6%   

December gain, but mining production is forecast to rise further.       

Capacity utilization is forecast to rise modestly to 78.0% from 77.9% in

December.                                                               

Housing Starts for January (annual rate, million)                       

 Friday, February 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Starts    1.227m        1.205m to 1.275m               -- 1.192m 1.299m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to rebound to a 1.227 million annual rate in January after     

slipping back in December. The NAHB index fell modestly in January.     

University of Michigan Survey for February (preliminary)                

 Friday, February 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

                Median           Range              Feb18p  Jan18  Dec17

 Consumer Sent    95.5       93.0 to 96.5               --   95.7   95.9

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to slide to 95.5

in early-February after holding roughly steady at 95.7 in January, but  

the recent plunge in the stock market provides some downside risk.      

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com