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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 8/17:06 EST Jul 8
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Consumer Credit for May (dollar change, billions)
Monday, July 9 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range May18 Apr18 Mar18
Cons Cred +13.8b +$12.0b to +$15.5b -- +$9.3b +$12.3b
Comments: The level of consumer credit is expected to rise by $13.8
billion in May, as retail sales jumped by 0.8% and were up 0.9%
excluding a 0.5% gain in motor vehicle sales.
Producer Price Index for June (percent change)
Wednesday, July 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun18 May18 Apr18
Final Demand +0.2% +0.2% to +0.3% -- +0.5% +0.1%
Ex Food,Energy +0.3% +0.2% to +0.3% -- +0.3% +0.2%
Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise only 0.2% in June
after a solid 0.5% gain in May. Energy prices are expected to show a
more modest increase following a 4.6% May surge, while food prices are
expected to post another small gain. Excluding food and energy prices,
PPI is forecast to rise 0.3%, the same as in the previous month.
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 7 week
Thursday, July 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul07 Jun30 Jun23
Weekly Claims 226k 226k to 226k -- 231k 228k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 5,000 to 226,000 in the July 7 holiday week after rising by 3,000 to
231,000 in the previous week, keeping the level in its tight range. The
four-week moving average would still rise by 1,250 in the coming week as
the 221,000 level in the June 9 week drops out of the calculation,
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Consumer Price Index for June (percent change)
Thursday, July 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun18 May18 Apr18
CPI +0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% -- +0.2% +0.2%
CPI Core +0.2% +0.2% to +0.2% -- +0.2% +0.1%
Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% for a third straight
month in June. The year/year rates should stabilize after moving higher
in May. AAA reported another modest gain in mid-month prices from May,
which could support a further increase in CPI gasoline prices, while
food prices are seen adding modestly. The core CPI is forecast to also
rise 0.2% following an as-expected 0.2% increase in May, with the
relatively large housing categories holding steady.
Treasury Statement for June ($ billions)
Thursday, July 12 at 2:00 p.m ET Actual:
Median Range Jun18 May18 May17
Balance -$102.0b -$102.0b to -$102.0b -- -$146.8b -$90.2b
Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a larger budget
deficit for June than the $90.2 billion gap in June 2017. July 1 fell on
a weekend in both years, so outlays were shifted into June. The impact
of the tax cuts should continue to be seen in the data in the form of
lower tax receipts and wider budget gaps.
University of Michigan Survey for July (preliminary)
Friday, July 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul18p Jun18f May18
Consumer Sent 98.5 98.0 to 99.0 -- 98.2 98.0
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise very
slightly to 98.5 in early-July from 98.2 in June. A balance between
favorable current conditions and trade concerns weighing on future
expectations has kept the headline index roughly unchanged since April.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.