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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Nov 9/17:06 EST Nov 9
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Treasury Statement for October ($ billions)                           
 Tuesday, November 13 at 2:00 p.m ET                     Actual:        
             Median           Range              Oct18    Sep18    Oct17
 Balance   -$124.0b   -$124.0b to -$124.0b          -- +$119.1b  -$63.2b
     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $124.0 billion 
deficit in October to start the fiscal year. The Treasury posted a $63.2 
billion deficit in October 2017, when some of the early-month transfer 
payments shifted into September. 
Consumer Price Index for October (percent change)                       
 Wednesday, November 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 CPI           +0.3%    +0.3% to +0.4%                  --  +0.1%  +0.2% 
 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.1%  +0.1%
     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in October after a 
smaller-than-expected 0.1% gain in September. The impact of Hurricane 
Michael is likely to be seen in a rebound in energy prices, reflecting 
damage to some energy production facilities. Food prices could see an 
impact as well. AAA reported a rise in mid-month prices from September, 
which could lift seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a 0.2% 
decline in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% 
following softer-than-expected 0.1% increases in both August and 
September. Analysts expect a rebound in used vehicle prices to add to 
the core reading. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for November 10 week                                
 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Nov10  Nov03  Oct27
 Weekly Claims   213k     210k to 215k                  --   214k   215k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 
by 1,000 for a third straight week, this time to a level of 213,000. The 
four-week moving average would still rise by 750 in the coming week as 
the 210,000 level in the October 13 rolls out of the calculation, 
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 
Retail and Food Sales for October (percent change)                       
 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 Retail Sales   +0.6%    +0.2% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.6%    +0.2% to +0.6%                 --  -0.1%  +0.2%
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% in October after a 
weaker than expected 0.1% gain in September. Not seasonally adjusted 
industry motor vehicle sales improved modestly in October, while AAA 
reported that gasoline prices rose slightly in mid-October from one 
month earlier. Motor vehicle sales should pick up further in the South 
as part of the hurricane recovery. Retail sales are expected to be up 
0.6% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.1% decline in September. 
Empire State Index for November (diffusion index)
 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 Empire Index      21.0    15.0 to 22.2                 --   21.1   19.0
     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall very slightly 
to 21.0 in November after a modest rebound to 21.1 in October. 
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for November (diffusion index)
 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 Phila Fed         20.0    15.0 to 21.0                 --   22.2   22.9
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a 
reading of 20.0 in November after holding roughly steady at 22.2 in 
October. 
Business Inventories for September (percent change)                      
 Thursday, November 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median           Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Inventories   +0.3%      +0.3% to +0.3%                --  +0.5%  +0.7%
     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% in 
September. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.5% in the 
month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.4%, and the advance report 
showed retail inventories rose by 0.1%. Taken together, an MNI 
calculation looks for a 0.3% increase for business inventories at this 
point, so the median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to 
retail inventories. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.9% and 
wholesale sales were up 0.2%, while the advance estimate for retail 
trade sales was a 0.4% gain, so the data suggest business sales were up 
0.5% in the month pending any revision to retail trade sales. 
Industrial Production for October (percent change)
 Friday, November 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 Ind Prod      +0.0%     -0.4% to +0.2%                 --  +0.3%  +0.4% 
 Cap Util      78.1%     77.9% to 78.2%                 --  78.1%  78.1% 
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to hold steady in 
October after a 0.3% gain in September. The impacts of Hurricane Michael 
may not center on mining production, as they have with past hurricanes, 
but rather on weaker readings for the manufacturing and utilities 
portions of the report. Factory payrolls rose by 32,000 in October, 
while auto production jobs rose by 7,000. However, the factory workweek 
was shorter at 40.8 hours, down slightly from 40.9 hours in September. 
The ISM production index dipped to 59.9 in the current month from 63.9 
in the previous month. Utilities production is expected remain nearly 
steady for a second straight month, though warmer-than-usual 
temperatures add some upside risk. Mining production is expected to 
continue its string of gains. Capacity utilization is forecast to stay 
at 78.1%.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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