US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 9 week                                

 Thursday, March 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Mar09  Mar02  Feb23

 Weekly Claims   225k      220k to 228k                 --   233k   226k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 2,000 to 225,000 in the March 9 week after a decrease of 3,000 in the 

previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by an additional 

3,500 this week as the 239,000 level in the February 9 week rolls out of 

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

New Home Sales for January (annual rate)

 Thursday, March 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 New Homes       624k      575k to 641k                 --   621k   599k 

     Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to rise further to 

a 630,000 annual rate in January after solid December rebound. Sales in 

October and November were revised lower, while sales in December were 

still down from a year earlier. 

Empire State Index for March (diffusion index)

 Friday, March 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Empire Index      10.0      6.0 to 15.0                --    8.8    3.9

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to move higher to 10.0 

in March after rebounding to 8.8 in February. The manufacturing measures 

have moderated in recent months, but continue to exhibit positive 

growth. 

Industrial Production for February (percent change)

 Friday, March 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Ind Prod      +0.4%       Flat to +1.1%                --  -0.6%  +0.1% 

 Cap Util      78.5%      78.0% to 79.0%                --  78.2%  78.8%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rebound by 0.4% in 

February after a 0.6% decline in January, with a number of negative 

signs for manufacturing production after January's decline. Factory 

payrolls rose by only 4,000 in February, with auto production jobs up 

1,000, while the factory workweek contracted further to 40.7 hours from 

40.8 hours in January. The ISM production index fell to 54.8 in the 

current month from 60.5 in the previous month. Utilities production is 

expected to surge on harsh weather in the month after a modest 0.4% rise 

in January, while mining production is expected to continue its upward 

path. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 78.5% after falling to 

78.2% in January. 

University of Michigan Survey for March (preliminary)          

 Friday, March 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:

                Median        Range                 Mar19p  Feb19  Jan19

 Consumer Sent    95.5     94.0 to 97.0                 --   93.8   91.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to 95.5 

in early-March from 93.8 in February, reflecting rising stock prices and 

still-low gasoline prices.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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