US DATA
The JOLTS report saw higher-than-expected job openings in Oct that were partly offset by a downward revision to Sept. The quits rate data were more notable, lifting from 1.95 to 2.09% for the highest since May and its first monthly increase on a rounded basis since May 2023 (it had seen four unrounded increases since that didn't alter a clear downward trend). It’s an increase off what had been the lowest quit rates since 1H15.
- Job openings were higher than expected in October at 7.744m (cons 7.52m) after a modestly downward revised 7.37m (initial 7.44m) in September, leaving them back closer to the 7.86m in August.
- The rate to unemployed nudged up to 1.11 after 1.08 (initial 1.09). There was an approximately 0.02pp downward bias to this ratio from the already known 150k increase in unemployment in October.
- The ratio to unemployment has stabilized at ~1.1 since July at levels last seen in mid-2021. It clearly remains low by recent standards having averaged 1.21 in Q2 for close to the 1.19 seen in 2019 although is still elevated compared to earlier pre-pandemic years such as the 1.00 averaged in 2017-18.
- Quits rate: 2.09% after 1.95 (initial 1.93) in July. 2019 av 2.33, 2017-18 av 2.20.
- Private quits: 2.32% after 2.15 (initial 2.13) in May. 2019 av 2.59, 2017-18 av 2.45.
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