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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- After taking more than 30 minutes for official public confirmation, the BLS reports that the preliminary benchmark payrolls revision is a very large -818k.
- It implies seasonally adjusted average monthly payrolls growth through the twelve months to Mar 2024 was closer to 174k rather than 242k seen in the current vintage.
- Analyst estimates we had seen prior had centered around -600k. GS had a range of -600k to -1m but thought it could exaggerate a downward revision by 300-500k.
- Preliminary benchmark estimates undershot the final estimates (which will be known in Feb 2025 for the Jan NFP report) by an average 110k through 2021-23 but that still leaves it on track for a historically large downward revision.
- Nevertheless, questions remain as to the amount that undocumented workers might be reflected in payrolls vs QCEW which is based on unemployment insurance records.
- See table and charts for context:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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