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US Data & Month End Prompt Two-Way Greenback Price Action, JPY Recovers

FOREX
  • The USD index looks set to post a moderate advance on Tuesday as we approach the APAC crossover and are seeing a late downtick for risk sentiment. Weaker than expected US data initially exerted some greenback weakness, however this downward momentum was halted as we approached the WMR month-end fix which appeared to broadly reflect the month-end models that had flagged the bias for USD buying.
  • Currency markets were perhaps better categorised by early JPY weakness, led by some strong advances for the likes of EURJPY and GBPJPY, and then a substantial JPY recovery following the data.
  • In late US trade, USDJPY slipped below Monday’s lows to briefly print a low of 135.74, an impressive near 120 pip sell-off in just a few hours.
  • The late turn in risk has also seen EURUSD slowly narrow the gap with overnight session's lows at 1.0582. The US data focus turns to ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs later this week.
  • USDCHF rose 0.5% on the session, negating the majority of Monday's move lower. This puts the pair back above the 0.94 mark and in close proximity to 3-month highs.
  • On Wednesday, Australian GDP and monthly CPI data is scheduled. Data is likely to show inflation easing in January to 8.1% from a prior reading of 8.4% Y/y. Additionally, Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will be released.
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