Free Trial

US DATA: New Home Sales Slide In Storm Disruption

US DATA
  • New home sales were far weaker than expected in October at 610k (cons 725k) after an unrevised 738k in September.
  • It left sales down 17.3% M/M after a 7.0% increase in September.
  • The regional data show even greater volatility, notably including a hugely negative -28% M/M for the south that is likely hurricane disruption for its largest monthly decline since 2010.
  • The south is by far the largest region for new home sales, accounting for 60% of national sales over the past twelve months. Other regions ranged from -9% in the west to a 53% jump in the small northeast region.
  • Consensus was likely caught out by no overt sign of storm disruption in the south for the existing home sales data, where a 2.9% increase in the south helped lay the groundwork for the 3.4% increase nationally.
  • The seemingly temporary disruption from storms saw the national months of supply lurch to 9.5 vs 7.9 in Oct 2023 for even further above the 6.0 averaged in the three Octobers before the pandemic. It's close to the recent October high of 9.7 in Oct 2022.
  • Noisy median house price data increased 4.7% Y/Y after 0.2% in Sept and -8.0% Y/Y in August. 

 

200 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • New home sales were far weaker than expected in October at 610k (cons 725k) after an unrevised 738k in September.
  • It left sales down 17.3% M/M after a 7.0% increase in September.
  • The regional data show even greater volatility, notably including a hugely negative -28% M/M for the south that is likely hurricane disruption for its largest monthly decline since 2010.
  • The south is by far the largest region for new home sales, accounting for 60% of national sales over the past twelve months. Other regions ranged from -9% in the west to a 53% jump in the small northeast region.
  • Consensus was likely caught out by no overt sign of storm disruption in the south for the existing home sales data, where a 2.9% increase in the south helped lay the groundwork for the 3.4% increase nationally.
  • The seemingly temporary disruption from storms saw the national months of supply lurch to 9.5 vs 7.9 in Oct 2023 for even further above the 6.0 averaged in the three Octobers before the pandemic. It's close to the recent October high of 9.7 in Oct 2022.
  • Noisy median house price data increased 4.7% Y/Y after 0.2% in Sept and -8.0% Y/Y in August.