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Data for: January 2019
Source: NY Federal Reserve Consumer Expectation Survey
Units are either median percent change or median probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              1-Yr Pct
        Pct Change         Pct Change         1-Yr Pct Chg         Chg
         1-yr infl          3-yr infl                  Gas        Food
Sep18         3.00               3.00                 4.48        4.48
Oct18         3.00               3.00                 4.54        4.54
Nov18         2.97               2.88                 4.18        4.32
Dec18         3.00               2.98                 3.66        4.24
Jan19         2.97               2.97                 4.23        4.52
          1-Yr Pct                                            1-Yr Pct
               Chg       1-Yr Pct Chg         1-Yr Pct Chg         Chg
           Medical            College                 Rent        Gold
Sep18         9.20               7.04                 5.55        2.58
Oct18         7.76               5.92                 5.44        2.51
Nov18         9.14               6.25                 5.38        2.21
Dec18         9.02               5.94                 5.27        2.10
Jan19         8.31               5.94                 5.40        2.73
                                                                  1-yr      1-yr
                                            1-yr Household   Household    Change
        Pct Growth                                            Spending
                In      Pct Growth In        Income Growth      Growth  In Taxes
                                                                             Pct
       Home Prices           Earnings           Pct Change  Pct Change    Change
Sep18         3.56               2.76                 2.52        2.94      2.45
Oct18         3.26               2.45                 2.91        3.69      2.39
Nov18         3.05               2.02                 2.95        3.49      2.68
Dec18         3.00               2.48                 2.91        3.50      2.62
Jan19         3.00               2.43                 2.81        3.01      2.73
       Probability
                Of     Probability Of
            Higher
             Unemp       Higher Stock            1-yr Govt
        Rates 1-yr        Prices 1-yr          Debt Growth
          From Now           From Now           Pct Change
Sep18        34.05              41.63                 7.01
Oct18        35.14              41.59                 6.37
Nov18        35.76              39.82                 7.77
Dec18        38.83              39.62                 6.15
Jan19        40.64              40.37                 9.05
                       Probability Of
                        The Following
                            Occurring
                                                             Change In
               Job          Voluntary          Job Finding        Home
                                                               Next 12
        Separation         Separation          In 3 Months         Mos
Sep18        15.99              23.37                59.29       17.44
Oct18        13.52              20.75                58.69       18.16
Nov18        14.66              22.77                58.59       18.82
Dec18        13.83              21.13                58.79       18.46
Jan19        14.50              21.43                59.23       18.58
       Probability
                Of                          Probability Of
         Unable To
              Make                          Higher Savings
           Minimum
           Payment                     Acct Interest Rates
        Next 3 Mos                           1-yr From Now
Sep18        13.71                                   36.83
Oct18        12.73                                   38.40
Nov18        12.04                                   37.27
Dec18        12.01                                   37.89
Jan19        12.01                                   37.01
                                       Credit Availability
                                        Compared With Year
                                                       Ago
              Much           Somewhat              Equally    Somewhat      Much
            Harder             Harder            Easy/Hard      Easier    Easier
Sep18         4.24              22.66                48.24       21.41      3.44
Oct18         4.60              23.68                45.18       23.34      3.21
Nov18         4.73              24.28                44.95       22.82      3.22
Dec18         6.32              23.14                42.52       24.12      3.90
Jan19         5.46              26.01                44.06       21.27      3.31
                                       Credit Availability
                                        Seen Year From Now
              Much           Somewhat              Equally    Somewhat      Much
            Harder             Harder            Easy/Hard      Easier    Easier
Sep18         3.98              27.09                47.86       18.48      2.59
Oct18         5.09              25.56                46.78       20.21      2.37
Nov18         5.97              25.37                46.12       19.70      2.84
Dec18         6.34              28.53                43.36       18.59      3.18
Jan19         6.13              29.92                45.84       14.73      3.38
                                        Household Finances
                                        Compared With Year
                                                       Ago
              Much           Somewhat                About    Somewhat      Much
                                                                          Better
         Worse Off          Worse Off             The Same  Better Off       Off
Sep18         1.68              15.60                47.85       29.32      5.56
Oct18         1.73              15.54                45.58       30.49      6.66
Nov18         1.69              16.53                46.14       29.42      6.23
Dec18         3.33              17.07                43.75       30.45      5.39
Jan19         1.76              18.12                46.64       28.09      5.40
                                        Household Finances
                                        Seen Year From Now
              Much           Somewhat                About    Somewhat      Much
                                                                          Better
         Worse Off          Worse Off             The Same  Better Off       Off
Sep18         0.50              11.51                48.24       33.10      6.66
Oct18         1.41               9.61                47.44       33.87      7.67
Nov18         1.37              11.17                44.94       35.96      6.57
Dec18         1.07              11.90                46.38       33.39      7.27
Jan19         0.63              14.27                46.51       32.16      6.43
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
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