US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

                       Sep-1  Aug-1

               Oct-19      9      9   Jul-19   Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19   Mar-19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UI Claims/4wk

avg

               214/21   204/   211/     208/

wk 1                5    213    213      219  219/215  228/220  197/207  224/220

                        208/   221/     216/

wk 2                     206    214      219  222/218  212/225  193/201  216/220

                        219/   211/     207/     217/

wk 3                     213    215      213      219  212/221  230/206  212/217

                        220/   216/     217/     229/

wk 4                     210    215      212      222  218/217  230/212  204/214

                        210/   219/     211/     222/

wk 5                     214    217      213      223

Nonfarm

Payrolls               +136k  +130k    +164k    +193k     +62k    +216k    +153k

Private

Payrolls               +114k   +96k    +148k    +179k     +81k    +195k    +153k

Mfg Payroll              -2k    +3k     +16k     +12k      +2k      +3k      -3k

Unemployment            3.5%   3.7%     3.7%     3.7%     3.6%     3.6%     3.8%

Avg Wkly

Hours                   34.4   34.4     34.3     34.4     34.4     34.4     34.5

Avg Hours -

Mfg                     40.5   40.5     40.4     40.7     40.6     40.6     40.7

Aggr Hours

Index                   0.0%  +0.4%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.5%

Aggr Hrs

Index - Mfg             0.0%  +0.5%    -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%

Avg Hourly

Earnings               +0.4%  +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%

Final Demand

PPI                    -0.3%  +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%

excl food &

energy                 -0.3%  +0.3%    -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%

excl food,

energy, trade            0.0  +0.4%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.4%     Flat

CPI                    +0.1%  +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%

excl food &

energy                 +0.2%  +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%

Import Prices          +0.2%  -0.5%    +0.2%    -0.9%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.6%

non-petro

import prices                   0.0     Flat    -0.4%    -0.3%    -0.5%     Flat

ISM Mfg

Prices Pd

Index                   49.7   46.0     45.1     47.9     53.2     50.0     54.3

PCE Price

Index M/M                      0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%

PCE Price

Index Y/Y                      1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.5%    +1.4%

Core PCE

Price Index

M/M                            0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Core PCE

Price Index

Y/Y                            1.8%    +1.6%    +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%

Treasury

Budget (bn)                          -$200.3  -$119.7    -$8.5  -$207.8  +$160.3

Consumer                      +$17.

Credit (bn)                       9   +$23.3   +$13.8   +$17.1   +$17.5   +$11.0

CB Consumer

Confidence             125.1  135.1    135.8    124.3    131.3    129.2    124.2

Consumer

Sentiment                      89.8     98.4     98.2    100.0     97.2     98.5

Retail Sales           -0.3%   +0.4    +0.8%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.4%    +1.8%

excl motor

vehicles                        0.0    +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.4%

Personal

Income                        +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%

Personal

Spending                               +0.6%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.0%

ISM Mfg Index           47.8   49.1     51.2     51.7     52.1     52.8     55.3

ISM Nonmfg

NMI                            56.4     53.7     55.1     56.9     55.5     56.1

MNI Chicago

Report                  47.1   50.4     44.4     49.7     54.2     52.6     58.7

Phila Fed Mfg

Index                   12.0   16.8     21.8      0.3     16.6      8.5     13.7

Phila Fed

Nonmfg Index     12.6    9.5    7.5     21.4      8.2     17.3     21.0     21.7

Empire State

Index             4.0    2.0    4.8      4.3     -8.6     17.8     10.1      3.7

KC Fed Mfg

Index              -3     -2     -6       -1        0        4        5       10

Richmond Fed

Mfg Index                 -9      1      -12        2        7        9       10

Dallas Fed

Mfg Index                1.5    2.7     -6.3    -12.1     -5.3      2.0      6.9

Markit Mfg

Index            51.5   51.1   50.3     50.4     50.6     50.5     52.4     52.4

Markit

Services

Index                   50.9   50.7     53.0     51.5     50.9     53.0     55.3

Ind

Production             -0.4%  +0.8%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.6%    +0.1%

Capacity Util          77.5%  77.9%    77.5%    77.8%    77.8%    77.7%    78.4%

Factory

Orders                        -0.1%     +1.4    +0.6%    -1.3%    -1.2%    +1.3%

Factory

Orders ex

transport                               +0.3    +0.1%    +0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Durables               -1.1%  +0.2%    +2.0%    +1.8%    -2.3%    -2.8%    +1.7%

Durables ex

transport              -0.3%  +0.5%    -0.4%    +0.8%    +0.4%    -0.2%    -0.5%

Nondurables                            +0.8%    -0.7%    -0.3%    +0.4%    +0.9%

Mfg Shipments                           -0.2     +0.1    +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%

Business

Inventories              0.0   +0.4     +0.4     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%     Flat

Factory                                 +0.2    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%

Retail                  -0.1    0.8             -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.6%    -0.3%

Wholesale                      +0.2     +0.2     Flat    +0.4%    +0.8%     Flat

Housing

Starts (mn)            1.256  1.386    1.191    1.241    1.264    1.270    1.199

Building

Permits (mn)           1.387  1.425    1.336    1.232    1.299    1.290    1.288

NAHB Index                68     66       65       64       66       63       62

New Home

Sales (k)                701    706      635      646      604      658      705

Existing

Homes (mn)              5.38   5.49     5.42     5.29     5.36     5.21     5.21

Pending Home

Sales Index                            105.6    108.3    105.4    104.3    105.9

Construct

Spending                        0.1      0.1     -0.7    -0.5%    +0.9%    +0.1%

Private

Residential                     0.9      0.6     -0.5     Flat    +0.9%    -0.8%

Trade Balance                 -$54.

(bn)                              9   -$54.0   -$55.2   -$55.3   -$51.2   -$51.9

                              $207.

Exports (bn)                      9   $207.4   $206.3   $210.7   $206.4   $211.4

                              $262.

Imports (bn)                      8   $261.4   $261.5   $266.0   $257.6   $263.3

Goods Only,                   -$74.

BOP (bn)                          4   -$72.5   -$75.1   -$75.9   -$71.7   -$72.7

Leading Index                 +0.0%    +0.5%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%

                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19

GDP

(chain-wt)                                      +2.0%                      +3.1%

Final Sales                                     +3.0%                      +2.6%

Chain prices                                    +2.4%                      +1.1%

Current-dolla

r                                               +4.6%                      +3.9%

                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19

Nonfarm

Productivity                                    +2.3%                      +3.5%

Nonfarm Unit

Labor Costs                                     +2.6%                      +5.5%

                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19

ECI (q/q)                                       +0.6%                      +0.7%

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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