US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Nov-19   Oct-19   Sep-19   Aug-19   Jul-19   Jun-19

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                                 210/214  206/213  211/213  208/219  219/215

wk 2                                 218/216  210/213  221/214  216/219  222/218

wk 3                                 213/215  215/213  211/215  207/213  217/219

wk 4                                 213/215  220/213  216/215  217/212  229/222

wk 5                                 218/215           219/217  211/213  222/223

Nonfarm Payrolls                       +128k    +136k    +168k    +166k    +193k

Private Payrolls                       +180k    +114k    +122k    +148k    +179k

Mfg Payroll                             -36k      -2k      +2k     +16k     +12k

Unemployment                            3.6%     3.5%     3.7%     3.7%     3.7%

Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.4     34.4     34.3     34.4

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.3     40.5     40.5     40.4     40.7

Aggr Hours Index                        0.0%     0.0%    +0.4%    -0.2%    +0.2%

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.6%     0.0%    +0.5%    -0.6%    +0.3%

Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.3%

Final Demand PPI                                -0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%

excl food & energy                              -0.3%    +0.3%    -0.1%    +0.3%

excl food, energy, trade                          0.0    +0.4%    -0.1%     Flat

CPI                                             +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%

excl food & energy                              +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%

Import Prices                                   +0.2%    -0.5%    +0.2%    -0.9%

non-petro import prices                                    0.0     Flat    -0.4%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 65.5     49.7     46.0     45.1     47.9

PCE Price Index M/M                              0.0%     0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%

PCE Price Index Y/Y                              1.3%     1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%

Core PCE Price Index M/M                         0.0%     0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                         1.7%     1.8%    +1.6%    +1.6%

Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$200.3  -$119.7  -$200.3  -$119.7

Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$23.3   +$17.9   +$23.3   +$13.8

CB Consumer Confidence                          125.1    135.1    135.8    124.3

Consumer Sentiment                                        89.8     98.4     98.2

Retail Sales                                    -0.3%     +0.4    +0.8%    +0.4%

excl motor vehicles                                        0.0    +1.0%    +0.3%

Personal Income                                 +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%

Personal Spending                               +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.3%

ISM Mfg Index                                    47.8     49.1     51.2     51.7

ISM Nonmfg NMI                                   52.6     56.4     53.7     55.1

MNI Chicago Report                      43.2     47.1     50.4     44.4     49.7

Phila Fed Mfg Index                              12.0     16.8     21.8      0.3

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                  12.6      9.5      7.5     21.4      8.2

Empire State Index                       4.0      2.0      4.8      4.3     -8.6

KC Fed Mfg Index                          -3       -2       -6       -1        0

Richmond Fed Mfg Index                             -9        1      -12        2

Dallas Fed Mfg Index                              1.5      2.7     -6.3    -12.1

Markit Mfg Index                                 51.5     50.3     50.4     50.6

Markit Services Index                            50.9     50.7     53.0     51.5

Ind Production                                  -0.4%    +0.8%    -0.1%    +0.1%

Capacity Util                                   77.5%    77.9%    77.5%    77.8%

Factory Orders                                  -0.6%    -0.1%     +1.4    +0.6%

Factory Orders ex transport                     -0.1%     0.0%     +0.3    +0.1%

Durables                                        -1.2%    +0.2%    +2.0%    +1.8%

Durables ex transport                           -0.6%    +0.4%    -0.4%    +0.8%

Nondurables                                                       +0.8%    -0.7%

Mfg Shipments                                                      -0.2     +0.1

Business Inventories                     0.0      0.0     +0.4     +0.4     Flat

Factory                                                            +0.2    +0.1%

Retail                                           -0.1      0.8             -0.3%

Wholesale                                                 +0.2     +0.2     Flat

Housing Starts (mn)                             1.256    1.386    1.191    1.241

Building Permits (mn)                           1.387    1.425    1.336    1.232

NAHB Index                                         68       66       65       64

New Home Sales (k)                                701      706      635      646

Existing Homes (mn)                              5.38     5.49     5.42     5.29

Pending Home Sales Index                        108.7    107.1    105.6    108.3

Construct Spending                                         0.1      0.1     -0.7

Private Residential                                        0.9      0.6     -0.5

Trade Balance (bn)                                      -$54.9   -$54.0   -$55.2

Exports (bn)                                            $207.9   $207.4   $206.3

Imports (bn)                                            $262.8   $261.4   $261.5

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                                    -$74.4   -$72.5   -$75.1

Leading Index                                            +0.0%    +0.5%    -0.1%

                                                         Q3-19             Q2-19

GDP (chain-wt)                                           +1.9%             +2.0%

Final Sales                                              +2.0%             +3.0%

Chain prices                                             +2.4%             +2.4%

Current-dollar                                           +1.7%             +4.6%

                                                                           Q2-19

Nonfarm Productivity                                                       +2.3%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                                   +2.6%

                                                         Q3-19             Q2-19

ECI (q/q)                                                +0.7%             +0.6%

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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