MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY13.8 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Increases Gold Reserves

MNI BRIEF: Japan Q3 GDP Revised Up On Net Exports, Capex

CORRECTED-MNI: Fed's Hammack-Near Or At Time To Slow Rate Cuts

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees Rates Fair Bit Lower In A Year

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 6

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US DATA: Unemployment Status Flows Increasingly Encouraging After Weak July

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The status flows within the household survey echo the strong headline figures that saw the unemployment rate surprisingly fall from 4.22% to 4.05%.
  • The outright shift from employed to unemployed (-215k) extended the improvement seen in Aug (-47k) after what had been a sharp 292k increase in July that drove the surprise lurch in the unemployment rate to 4.25%.
  • The net flows continue to show upward pressure on the unemployment rate from the labor supply, adding 0.08pps vs heavy net flows from unemployed to employed lowering the u/e rate by 0.26pps.
  • Taking a step back, net employed-unemployed flows have only pushed the u/e rate higher once in the past twelve months (in July, by 0.05pps) with no sign of broader job loss pressures.
  • Net flows between those not in the labor force and unemployment (i.e. crude estimate of labor supply flows) increased from a +0.04pp to +0.08pp contribution in Sept but that’s lower than the +0.15pps averaged through 1H24. If maintained, that offers a reduced tailwind for future unemployment rate increases. 
171 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • The status flows within the household survey echo the strong headline figures that saw the unemployment rate surprisingly fall from 4.22% to 4.05%.
  • The outright shift from employed to unemployed (-215k) extended the improvement seen in Aug (-47k) after what had been a sharp 292k increase in July that drove the surprise lurch in the unemployment rate to 4.25%.
  • The net flows continue to show upward pressure on the unemployment rate from the labor supply, adding 0.08pps vs heavy net flows from unemployed to employed lowering the u/e rate by 0.26pps.
  • Taking a step back, net employed-unemployed flows have only pushed the u/e rate higher once in the past twelve months (in July, by 0.05pps) with no sign of broader job loss pressures.
  • Net flows between those not in the labor force and unemployment (i.e. crude estimate of labor supply flows) increased from a +0.04pp to +0.08pp contribution in Sept but that’s lower than the +0.15pps averaged through 1H24. If maintained, that offers a reduced tailwind for future unemployment rate increases.