MNI JAPAN Q4 GDP ??REV +0.6% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.7%; MEDIAN +0.7%

MNI JAPAN JAN HOUSEHOLD SPENDING +0.8% Y/Y; DEC +2.7%

MNI: US Feb Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Rises - NY Fed

MNI INTERVIEW: Hainan Green FTZ to Attract EU Investors - NPC

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, March 10

MNI BRIEF: Japan Feb Sentiment Drops, Govt Cuts View

MNI: UK BRC FEB BY VALUE SHOP SALES LFL +0.9% YY, TOTAL +1.1% YY

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium, Finland Due Tuesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, EU Syndications Upcoming

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

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FOREX: US Dollar Ending Higher Following Mixed US Employment Report

FOREX
  • The greenback initially traded weaker as markets reacted to the higher-than-expected US unemployment rate, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve cutting rates at its December meeting. However, while ignoring the lower front-end US yields, currency markets reversed course, and the USD index looks set to close the session with 0.35% gains.
  • The short-term EURUSD bounce reached a three-week high of 1.0630 before substantially reversing course. Price action represents the fourth attempt above 1.0600, the prior breakdown point for the pair, and we are yet to have a daily close above this level, potentially bolstering the medium-term trend direction, which remains down.
  • Markets will also be eyeing a false break of the 20-day EMA, having slipped back below the average in recent trade. Key levels on the downside are well established at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low and 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and the bear trigger.
  • Antipodean FX is notably underperforming on the session with both AUD and NZD down comfortably over 1%. There was an element of concern that the appointment of David Perdue by Trump as the Ambassador to China is a strong signal of hawkish intent toward China under the Trump admin next year - which is certainly negative for both AUD and NZD. Resilience for both EURAUD and EURNZD over the French political developments may also be enhancing this dynamic.
  • In Canada, a poor breakdown of full-time versus part time jobs created and a higher than expected unemployment rate has boosted USDCAD, as market participants see a second 50bp BOC cut firmly in their sights. The pair resides around 1.4150 ahead of the weekend close, near to cycle highs.
  • Chinese inflation data crosses Monday before Wednesday’s release of US CPI. Several central banks have rate decisions, including the RBA, BOC, SNB and ECB.
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