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US EIA Gas Storage Draw of 58bcf Estimated: BNEF

NATGAS

The US EIA gas storage data due for release at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) is expected to show a withdrawal of -58bcf for the week ending Feb 16 according to BNEF.

  • A Bloomberg survey average suggests a draw of -59bcf on the week compared to the seasonal normal draw of -153bcf.
  • The BNEF samples-based model predicts a withdrawal of -56bcf while the weather-based supply and demand model predicts a withdrawal of -62bcf.
  • Total storage was last week reported at 2,535bcf after a smaller than average -49bcf draw on the week. US storage was 348bcf higher than the seasonal average of 2,187bcf and 84bcf higher than the previous 5-year high.
  • Consumption is forecast down by 0.5bcf/d on the week to 99.3bcf/d with an increase in power generation demand more than offset by lower residential/commercial and industrial demand. Supply is also estimated to have dropped by 0.9bcf/d to 91.0bcf/d.
  • The early view for the week ending Feb 23 is a withdrawal of -88bcf.
  • Storage is estimated to reach 2,293bcf and well above the five year average at the end of the winter season amid a warm weather forecast for Feb and potentially March.
    • US Natgas MAR 24 down -3.2% at 1.72$/mmbtu
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