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US EIA Storage Expected to Draw by 124bcf: BNEF

NATGAS

The US EIA gas storage data due for release at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) is expected to show a withdrawal of -124bcf for the week ending Jan 5 according to BNEF.

  • The Bloomberg survey average suggests a draw of -122bcf on the week compared to the seasonal normal draw of -160bcf.
  • The BNEF samples-based model predicts a withdrawal of -126bcf while the weather-based supply and demand model predicts a withdrawal of -125bcf.
  • Total storage was last week reported at 3,476bcf after an -14bcf draw on the week. US storage was 399bcf higher than the seasonal average of 3,077bcf and 90bcf lower than the previous 5-year high.
  • Cold weather has driven US continental gas heating degree days for Jan up from 902 on Dec 30 to 959 on Jan 10 and above the 10 year normal of 919.
  • Supply is expected to have increased slightly by 0.4bcf/d to 91.5bcf/d on the week with consumption up by 16.0bcf/d to 109.3bcf/d driven residential and commercial and power gen demand.
  • The early view for the week ending Jan 12 is a withdrawal of -160bcf.
    • US Natgas FEB 24 down -0.9% at 3.01$/mmbtu
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