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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US ELECTIONS
Failing a major surprise in late ballots in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the House of Representatives now appears the only pathway for Democrats to block a Republican sweep of government and constrain Trump's agenda.
- DDHQ notes that Democrats' chances of winning the House ticked up to 58% the last few minutes, reflecting the first Democrat flip of the cycle in New York's 22nd district. However, with a large proportion of the most competitive races taking place in California, the final shape of the race will remain unclear for hours.
- The New York Times warns: "...it could take days or weeks to count enough votes to determine which party won."
- The Cook Political Report notes similarly, “With several competitive races in West Coast states that take longer to count their ballots, it’s highly possible we won’t know which party has control on election night.”
- Polymarket currently indicates an implied probability of a GOP sweep at 73% with a "R Prez, R Senate, D House" at 21%.
Figure 1: House of Representatives, %Implied Probability of Winning
Source: DDHQ
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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