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US ELECTIONS: House Appears Only Pathway For Dems To Block GOP Sweep

US ELECTIONS
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Failing a major surprise in late ballots in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the House of Representatives now appears the only pathway for Democrats to block a Republican sweep of government and constrain Trump's agenda. 

  • DDHQ notes that Democrats' chances of winning the House ticked up to 58% the last few minutes, reflecting the first Democrat flip of the cycle in New York's 22nd district. However, with a large proportion of the most competitive races taking place in California, the final shape of the race will remain unclear for hours.
  • The New York Times warns: "...it could take days or weeks to count enough votes to determine which party won."
  • The Cook Political Report notes similarly, “With several competitive races in West Coast states that take longer to count their ballots, it’s highly possible we won’t know which party has control on election night.”
  • Polymarket currently indicates an implied probability of a GOP sweep at 73% with a "R Prez, R Senate, D House" at 21%.

Figure 1: House of Representatives, %Implied Probability of Winning

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Failing a major surprise in late ballots in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the House of Representatives now appears the only pathway for Democrats to block a Republican sweep of government and constrain Trump's agenda. 

  • DDHQ notes that Democrats' chances of winning the House ticked up to 58% the last few minutes, reflecting the first Democrat flip of the cycle in New York's 22nd district. However, with a large proportion of the most competitive races taking place in California, the final shape of the race will remain unclear for hours.
  • The New York Times warns: "...it could take days or weeks to count enough votes to determine which party won."
  • The Cook Political Report notes similarly, “With several competitive races in West Coast states that take longer to count their ballots, it’s highly possible we won’t know which party has control on election night.”
  • Polymarket currently indicates an implied probability of a GOP sweep at 73% with a "R Prez, R Senate, D House" at 21%.

Figure 1: House of Representatives, %Implied Probability of Winning

Keep reading...Show less