US ELECTIONS: Trump "Likely" To Win Presidency For The First Time, NYT

The NYT needle has pushed out of 'lean-Trump' into 'likely-Trump' for the first time this evening amid strong exit poll data for Trump among Latino voters in Michigan and a slight lead for Trump in critical Pennsylvania. 

• Nate Cohen at the Times notes: "[Trump] has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead."
• Nate Silver has taken down his outlier model down, noting: "...it isn’t capturing the story of this election night well. It’s based only on called states and the timing of those calls. So far, all the calls have been predictable. But no swing states have been called, and there is a lot of information it doesn’t capture, information that is mostly good for Donald Trump and bad for Kamala Harris — not the 50/50 race the “called” states might imply..."
• With consensus coalescing around a Trump win, market focus will shift to Congress. The GOP is strongly favoured to win the Senate, appearing likely to pick up WV (already called), MT, and OH. Democrats have failed in their two pickup opportunities in TX and FL. Only independent candidate Dan Osborne in NE offers a pickup opportunity to offset additional potential losses in PA, WI, and AZ.
• DDHQ currently rates the House of Representatives as a 50-50 toss-up. Democrats need to pick up six seats to flip the chamber and hold a bulkhead against Trump's agenda, should the presidency and Senate fall as projected.

Figure 1: 2024 House Results