US Falls on High Production and Falling EU Gas

A correction in European and Asian gas prices has taken some upside pressure off US prices although demand for LNG exports will remain high.

• US Natgas OCT 22 down -2.2% at 9.06$/mmbtu
• TTF OCT 22 down -10.9% at 216.5€/MWh
• Strong demand helped prices rally yesterday and above expected EIA stocks data did little to bring prices down. Stocks are still well below normal at 2,640bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,957bcf.
• Strong US production maintaining near highs reached last weekend is helping to slowly build stocks and adding to the downside pressure. Lower 48 dry gas production is estimated at 99.5bcf/d today having peaked at 100.45bcf/d on Aug 27.
• Weather forecasts are maintaining above normal temperatures throughout much of the US with California struggling with especially high cooling demand. The second week of the forecast still shows a moderation to the heat across the country.
• Deliveries to LNG export terminals are today at 11.4bcf/d while export to Mexico are estimated at 6.7bcf/d.