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US: Futures Eeking out Gains Following Cash Market's Positive Day.

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  • Treasury futures are trying to turn positive in the second half of the trading session, curves mildly flatter (2s10s -.40 at 11.002; 10s30s -1.3 at 19.9) with bonds leading the move to session highs. In the absence of headline drivers, the current drift off lows mirrors late moves in Gilts.
  • The Dec'24 10Y futures contract trades -7 at 110-15 vs. 110-20 high, initial technical resistance above at 111-06.5 (Oct 25 high) to 111-24 (20-day EMA).
  • Trading desks noted modest short covering from proprietary/trading accounts looking to square up positions ahead of tomorrow's October employment report at 0830ET, current survey estimate at +105k jobs vs. +254k in September.
  • The FOMC announces their next rate decision on Thursday, November 7 (dots not included. Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 are largely steady vs. late Wednesday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -23.5bp ( -23.5bp), Dec'24 -42.8bp (-42.8bp), Jan'25 -58.1bp (-58.1bp), Mar'25 -75.0bp (-76.0bp).
  • Cash trading has been most positive today with yields lower across the curve.  Outperformer was the long end with UST 20yr (T4.125 ’44) lower by 3bp and UST 30yr (T4.25 ‘ 54) lower by 2.8bp.
  • Moves across cash curves were fairly muted with 2s10s -0.5bp and 5s10s -1bp.
  • All in all it was a poor month for UST’s posting their worst month since 2022 as data releases has caused investors to re-assess the pace of reductions of interest rates. 
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  • Treasury futures are trying to turn positive in the second half of the trading session, curves mildly flatter (2s10s -.40 at 11.002; 10s30s -1.3 at 19.9) with bonds leading the move to session highs. In the absence of headline drivers, the current drift off lows mirrors late moves in Gilts.
  • The Dec'24 10Y futures contract trades -7 at 110-15 vs. 110-20 high, initial technical resistance above at 111-06.5 (Oct 25 high) to 111-24 (20-day EMA).
  • Trading desks noted modest short covering from proprietary/trading accounts looking to square up positions ahead of tomorrow's October employment report at 0830ET, current survey estimate at +105k jobs vs. +254k in September.
  • The FOMC announces their next rate decision on Thursday, November 7 (dots not included. Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 are largely steady vs. late Wednesday levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -23.5bp ( -23.5bp), Dec'24 -42.8bp (-42.8bp), Jan'25 -58.1bp (-58.1bp), Mar'25 -75.0bp (-76.0bp).
  • Cash trading has been most positive today with yields lower across the curve.  Outperformer was the long end with UST 20yr (T4.125 ’44) lower by 3bp and UST 30yr (T4.25 ‘ 54) lower by 2.8bp.
  • Moves across cash curves were fairly muted with 2s10s -0.5bp and 5s10s -1bp.
  • All in all it was a poor month for UST’s posting their worst month since 2022 as data releases has caused investors to re-assess the pace of reductions of interest rates.