US Govt Shutdown Averted, Tsys Weaker

Cash Tsys kicked off the Asia session lower after Congress passed a stopgap funding bill Saturday evening. The H.R. 5860 bill, "which provides fiscal year appropriations to Federal agencies through November 17, 2023, for continuing projects of the Federal Government and extends several expiring authorities". LINK

Tsy extended lows into the London session (TYZ3 marked 107-19 low) as Gilts weighed on EGBs. Tsy yields gaining (10YY +.0557 at 4.6268%) still off last Thu's high 16Y high of 4.6861%. Tsy curves are running mostly flatter, 3M10Y +4.612 at -83.910, 2Y10Y -.484 at -48.146.
The bear trend in Treasuries remains intact, maintaining the bearish price sequence of lowers and lower highs. Initial technical support at 107-05, 1.382 Fibonacci proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing.

Rate hike projections into early 2024 bouncing off Friday lows: November at 30.5% vs. 18.6% w/ implied rate change of +7.6bp to 5.405%, December cumulative of 12.6bp at 5.455%, January 2024 12.9bp at 5.458%. Fed terminal at 5.46% in Feb'24.
No lapse in economic data this week, today's focus on S&P Global US Mfg PMI at 0945ET, Construction Spending and ISMs at 1000ET. Main focus is on Friday's September employment data.

Scheduled Fed speakers kicks off with Fed Chair Powell, Philly Fed Harker at moderated roundtable at 1100ET. NY Fed Williams moderates climate risk discussion at 1330ET while Cleveland Fed Mester discusses her economic outlook at 1930ET, text and Q&A.