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US LNG Approvals Pause Could Support Exports from Other Suppliers

LNG

No immediate market impact is expected from the US pause to approvals for new LNG export projects, but higher exports could be encouraged from other suppliers, according to Li Yanlan at Beijing Gas Group.

  • Efforts to increase exports from Qatar, Australia and Russia will offset potential cuts from the US. US LNG projects not affected by the ban could double exports by 2028 adding capacity of up to 80mtpa.
  • The ban was a warning sign for China to diversify imports and raise domestic production. The US accounted for 5% of China’s total imports in 2023.
  • China’s gas demand may rise 6.1% y/y to 415.7bcm in 2024 and likely by more than 20bcm/year through 2040.
  • The upcoming presidential election will test the ban. “It is extremely unlikely to continue the policy, and reject all pending projects,” he said.
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