US Natgas Edges Higher on Weather Risk Before EIA Inventory Data

US Natgas edging higher on the risk of cooler weather ahead of the updated weekly EIA US inventory data.

• US Natgas NOV 22 up 0.8% at 6.98$/mmbtu
• The expectation is for EIA data to show another strong build of 116bcf due to high production and slightly lower domestic and LNG export demand. Last week saw a build of +103bcf and the 5-year average for this time of year is +83bcf. Total US stocks are still 8% below the 5-year average despite building in recent weeks.
• Lower 48 dry gas production is maintaining well above normal with yesterday at 101.6bcf/d although slightly off from the record level seen at the start of the week.
• Domestic demand was just above normal at 66.2bcf/d yesterday. The weather forecast is showing the potential for below normal temperatures in the 8-14 day period in the East and South of the US.
• Maintenance and outages continue to limit deliveries to LNG export terminals with gas flows estimated at 10.5bcf/d again today. Exports to Mexico remain relatively stable with yesterday at 6.6bcf/d.