US Natgas Steady on Storage Draw and LNG Export Potential

US Natgas is holding just above recent lows with slightly below normal domestic demand offset by larger than expected storage withdrawals last week, strong LNG output and further steps towards a restart of Freeport LNG

• US Natgas MAR 23 up 0.8% at 2.45$/mmbtu
• A US regulator has approved the return of Freeport LNG ship loading to service. Shipments are expected resume on 11 Feb with fuel that has been in the tank before the plant shut last year. The full restart of the facility still requires further approvals.
• Pipeline flows to the Freeport terminal are very slowly increasing according to Bloomberg data with today up to 0.16bcf/d. Total deliveries to US LNG export terminals are today at 12.76bcf/d.
• The weather forecast is unchanged from yesterday with the 6-14 day NOAA forecast showing below normal temperatures in the west and above normal in the east. Domestic demand is today at 87.2bcf/d.
• EIA data yesterday showed a larger than expected stock draw of -217bcf compared to expectation of a -199bcf draw and the 5-year average for this time of year of -181bcf. Total US inventories are still above the five year average at 2,366bcf.
• Lower 48 dry gas production was at 101.4bcf/d yesterday and export flows to Mexico are at 6.5bcf/d.