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US Natgas Surges to Over 5-Month High

NATURAL GAS

US Henry Hub surged higher today to the highest level since 3 March with an upward revision in temperatures boosting cooling demand, higher LNG flows and the risk of global LNG supply disruptions amid possible strike action at Australian LNG facilities.

  • US Natgas SEP 23 up 3.4% at 2.87$/mmbtu
  • Workers at Woodside and Chevron LNG platforms and facilities in Australia have voted to strike, threatening to disrupt LNG supply, meaning the workforce can cease operations with seven days’ notice.
  • Lower 48 dry natural gas consumption is today estimated at 75.1bcf/d compared to the five-year average of around 71.28bcf/d. Cooling demand remains strong with above normal temperatures still forecast for most of the country, with a slight upward revision in the 6-10 day forecast. The latest weather forecast shows warm weather pushing northwards further with only a small central northern era remaining below normal in the 8-14 day period.
  • LNG export terminal feedgas flows have risen today to 12.11bcf/d, compared with 11.42bcf/d yesterday according to Bloomberg.
  • US production was down yesterday to 99.73bcf/d, compared with 102bcf/d a day earlier.
  • Export flows to Mexico remain high at 7.17bcf/d today.
  • EIA forecasts US natural gas production to average around 104bcf/d through the end of 2024, compared with 103bcf/d in 2Q23. Production has been supported by growth in the Permian Basin despite a decline in natgas prices according to the EIA STEO report.
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